Israel/Palestine
Meltdown Looms for the West Bank’s Financial Lifelines
Israel’s threatened termination of a banking waiver would paralyse financial activity in the West Bank, causing an economic meltdown and risking the Palestinian Authority’s collapse – with dire consequences for West Bank Palestinians – and maybe for Israel, too. The U.S. should press Israel to change course.
CrisisWatch Israel/Palestine
Deteriorated Situation
Conflict Risk Alert
Israel escalated deadly violence in West Bank and approved plans to recognise illegal settlements, while Israeli assault on Gaza Strip continued; Israel and Hizbollah intensified cross-border attacks, threatening expanded conflict.
Israeli security forces and settlers stepped up attacks across West Bank, govt approved plans to “legalise” settlements. Notably, Israeli forces 11 June killed six Palestinians in Kafr Dan village; Israeli airstrike 30 June killed Palestinian and injured five in Nur Shams refugee camp. UN Security Council members, including U.S., 25 June voiced concern about escalating violence in West Bank and expansion of illegal settlements. Israeli govt 27 June approved plan to “legalise” five settlement outposts illegal under Israeli law.
Israel killed hundreds in operation to free hostages in Gaza. Israel’s June operations in Gaza killed over 1,500, bringing total death toll since Oct to at least 37,765 Palestinians. In central Gaza, Israeli forces 8 June launched operation in Nuseirat refugee camp, rescuing four Israeli hostages while killing 274 Palestinians. In south, Israel continued incursion into Rafah and 17 June claimed control of 70% of city. Israel maintained control of Gaza-Egypt border and Rafah crossing remained closed. Israel Defense Forces 16 June announced “tactical pause” in fighting during daylight along main road in southern Gaza to allow aid in from Kerem Shalom crossing; PM Netanyahu denounced pause. Israeli military 27 June ordered evacuation of residents east of Gaza city, displacing estimated 60,000-80,000 and leaving around 78% of Gaza Strip under evacuation orders.
Ceasefire proposal made no headway and Israeli war cabinet dissolved. Following U.S. President Biden’s ceasefire proposal outlined late May, negotiations remained stalled, with Hamas demanding Israel’s commitment to permanent ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza, and Israel refusing to endorse end of war. Meanwhile, centrists Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot 9 June left Israeli war cabinet and coalition govt, citing failure to set out post-war plan for Gaza, and Netanyahu 17 June dissolved war cabinet. Israeli Supreme Court 25 June ruled to end military exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, setting stage for tensions in coalition.
Pressure mounted for all-out war against Hizbollah. Amid domestic pressure notably from displaced Israelis and right-wing ministers for all-out war against Hizbollah, cross-border attacks escalated (see Lebanon).
Latest Updates
Meltdown Looms for the West Bank’s Financial Lifelines
Israel’s threatened termination of a banking waiver would paralyse financial activity in the West Bank, causing an economic meltdown and risking the Palestinian Authority’s collapse – with dire consequences for West Bank Palestinians – and maybe for Israel, too. The U.S. should press Israel to change course.
Ceasefire in Gaza: What’s New and What’s Next?
In this online event, Crisis Group experts from our MENA and U.S. Programs discuss the latest developments in Israel and Gaza, what’s new regarding the ceasefire talks, and what should happen next.
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The United Arab Emirates signed the 2020 Abraham Accords with Israel in pursuit of strategic benefits. During the Gaza war, costs are becoming clear. Abu Dhabi shows no sign of rethinking normalisation, but it might consider smaller steps to register discontent with the Israeli campaign.
A Gaza Ceasefire
The ceasefire deal the U.S. has tabled represents the best – and perhaps last – hope for both ending the Gaza war and getting the hostages held in the strip back any time soon. Israeli and Hamas leaders should accept it.
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In this video Riccardo Fabiani discusses how Cairo has turned the crisis somewhat to its advantage, leveraging Western fears that what is happening in Gaza could destabilise Egypt.
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