South Sudan
South Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbour’s War Disrupts Oil Exports
Income from oil exports is critical to keeping South Sudan’s factious elites together. The war in neighbouring Sudan has led earnings to fall precipitously, threatening instability in Juba and highlighting anew the need to bring the Sudanese conflict to a close.
CrisisWatch South Sudan
Unchanged Situation
Kenya-led peace talks between holdout opposition groups and govt advanced to draft agreement but faced pushback from VP Machar, economy worsened further, and new armed group emerged.
Kenya-led peace talks yielded draft agreement opposed by VP Machar. Following talks between govt and several opposition groups that did not sign 2018 peace accord, Kenyan mediation team mid-June shared draft peace deal with parties. In addition to security, financial and judicial reforms, agreement includes provisions on unimplemented elements of 2018 peace deal, such as drafting of permanent constitution; parties worked on power-sharing section of draft, which could determine timetable for new transitional period (potentially leading to postponing of elections), as well as on revised structure of executive, legislature and judiciary. VP Machar 19 June said agreement undermined 2018 peace deal; his resistance could encourage others within coalition govt in Juba feeling disadvantaged by power-sharing formula to oppose agreement.
Economic crisis worsened as govt sought outside financing. Economy remained in dire straits, exacerbated by breakdown of key oil pipeline in Feb due to conflict in Sudan. South Sudan Opposition Alliance MP David De Dau 19 June pressed President Kiir to urgently address crisis, warning that public employees had not been paid for months and that “hunger is looming”. Efforts to secure loans from international partners, including International Monetary Fund and Ethiopia, remained challenging due to stringent conditions attached to loans and Juba’s compromised financial credibility, alongside pipeline rupture.
Holdout opposition group splintered, leading to formation of new armed group. National Salvation Front (NAS) led by Thomas Cirillo (holdout opposition group not party to Kenya talks) splintered as top commander, Maj Gen. Kohn Kenyi Loburon, 20 June criticised Cirillo’s “poor leadership” and announced he had formed new rebel group dubbed National Salvation United Forces; defection of Loburon, who has proven adept at defending NAS territory from govt advances, represents major blow to Cirillo.
Intercommunal violence persisted in several states. Notably, UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) 24 June announced stepped-up patrols in Unity State and Ruweng Administrative Area (RAA) following deadly cross-border clashes over stolen cattle.
Latest Updates
With Oil Exports Disrupted, What Lies Ahead for South Sudan?
In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, to discuss new political talks in Kenya and whether South Sudan can weather a sudden plunge in oil revenue.
South Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbour’s War Disrupts Oil Exports
Income from oil exports is critical to keeping South Sudan’s factious elites together. The war in neighbouring Sudan has led earnings to fall precipitously, threatening instability in Juba and highlighting anew the need to bring the Sudanese conflict to a close.
On the Horizon: March - August 2024
This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
It's Time to Start Talking About Elections in South Sudan
This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Edmund Yakani, a leading South Sudanese civil society activist and executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, to discuss the state of South Sudan’s peace process and the prospects for elections next year.
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South Sudan’s Splintered Opposition: Preventing More Conflict
Side deals between President Salva Kiir and renegade opposition leaders jeopardise the 2018 agreement that ended the worst fighting of South Sudan’s civil war. East African mediators should press the principal combatants – Kiir and Riek Machar – to restart talks on the issues that divide them.
South Sudan’s oil sector needs to become more transparent
Originally published in The African Report.
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