Andes
Winds of Change in Venezuela? Chavismo Faces Its Greatest Electoral Test
Venezuelans will cast ballots on 28 July. Polls indicate that a credible election would see the opposition prevail in the economically stricken South American country. Crisis Group spoke with chavistas to gauge how they respond to the possibility of losing power.
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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Learn more about CrisisWatchTrends for Last Month June 2024
Deteriorated Situations
South China Sea Democratic Republic of Congo Sudan Kenya Israel/Palestine Burkina Faso
Improved Situations
None
Outlook for This Month July 2024
Conflict Risk Alerts
Resolution Opportunities
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Latest Updates
Winds of Change in Venezuela? Chavismo Faces Its Greatest Electoral Test
Venezuelans will cast ballots on 28 July. Polls indicate that a credible election would see the opposition prevail in the economically stricken South American country. Crisis Group spoke with chavistas to gauge how they respond to the possibility of losing power.
The Hard Road for Colombia’s Wounded Former Combatants
As part of the 2016 peace deal, the Colombian government promised support to ex-combatants as they re-entered civilian society. Reintegration camps were supposed to aid in this process. As Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González reports, support has fallen short, especially for ex-combatants with disabilities.
On The Horizon: June - November 2024
On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Could a Competitive Vote Offer a Way out of Venezuela’s Crisis?
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss Venezuela’s presidential elections and its government’s claim to an oil rich region in neighbouring Guyana.
Seeking the Best from a Skewed Poll: Hard Choices for Venezuela
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is tilting the July presidential election in his favour, in violation of the 2023 Barbados accord. While Maduro should face consequences, the U.S. should take a calibrated approach to the reimposition of sanctions.
On the Horizon: March - August 2024
This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
Fear and Silence: Life Under the Gaitanistas
In this video, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Colombia Elizabeth Dickinson talks with communities living in areas with a strong presence of the Gaitanista Self-Defence Force.
The Unsolved Crime in “Total Peace”: Dealing with Colombia’s Gaitanistas
The Gaitanistas, Colombia’s largest and richest armed and criminal group, remain outside the government’s initiative for dialogue with all the country’s armed organisations. To avoid jeopardising other peace processes and to protect civilians, Bogotá should seek gradual talks with the Gaitanistas, while maintaining security pressure.
VIDEO | Unrest on Repeat: Towards Stability in Peru
In this video, Crisis Group explores the causes behind the high rates of dissatisfaction with democracy and government institutions in Peru, which are higher than in any other country in Latin America.
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