It’s a truth universally acknowledged in politics that a party led by someone with questionable electoral fortunes must be in want of a plan B.
And so went the sideline chats for those gathering at the Queensland Liberal National party state conference this weekend: who comes after Peter Dutton?
To be clear, no one is expecting the opposition leader to be rolled any time before the next election. But the succession plan is in full swing, with party members and the voters looking at what comes after a Dutton opposition. Of course, there are those who still believe Dutton will pull off a miracle win, but with at least 12 seats needed before minority government even looks possible, there are even less true believers than there were jokes in Dutton’s Midwinter Ball speech.
Angus Taylor is shaping up as the most likely successor, with the Victorian senator Jane Hume being raised as the deputy. Keith Pitt would take the Nationals lead, keeping a Queenslander in the leadership mix, although he’s a different kind of Queenslander, more old school compared with the current leader, David Littleproud.
Unofficially, Hume has been elevated to the Coalition’s preferred spokesperson, as she is seen as more effective and less polarising than the actual deputy leader, Sussan Ley.
This was all the side chatter at the Queensland LNP conference on Friday, where Dutton made a surprise appearance.
Time’s up for Gerrard Rennick
Dutton wasn’t expected to show until Saturday, when he would make the official “rah-rah everything is going exactly to plan” leader’s speech, but he showed up to support the outgoing senator Gerrard Rennick in his bid to reopen votes for the number three spot on the Senate ticket.
Rennick lost the third spot – which in the right conditions is winnable, even if unlikely this time around – to Stuart Fraser, who is seen as a James McGrath ally.
Rennick had attempted to have the vote put aside at state council on Friday, arguing that if “it happened to him, it could happen to anyone”.
After losing the number three spot to Fraser by three votes, Rennick alleged there had been “irregularities” with how the vote had been handled and questions over who had been allowed a proxy vote. Rennick took the issue to the state executive, which ruled he had run out of time to challenge the vote. He then went to the supreme court which decided the action had been lodged too late. So this was his last attempt to overrule the decision and get back on the ticket.
Dutton was one of those who had not been given a proxy vote in the original vote. He showed up on Friday and voted for Rennick’s motion, but did not speak on it. But Matt Canavan and Keith Pitt did make impassioned speeches on Rennick’s behalf, arguing Rennick was right to challenge the issue, on principle. “Who will be next?” the state council, which is made up of LNP members, MPs and councillors were asked. Rennick supporters believe that if it had been a secret ballot, it might have been more in his favour – but as it was, the show of hands was the third gong in Rennick’s political career.
At least for the LNP. Because while Rennick may have lost his battle against the LNP state executive, there are whispers his political career may be kept afloat by Bill Shorten’s new stunt bestie, Pauline Hanson.
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Hanson was re-elected for six years in 2022. But there remains speculation of whether or not the 70-year-old will want to run out her term. Her longtime staffer James Ashby has been next in line as her likely successor, but Ashby looks like pulling off a win in the Queensland state election in the seat of Yeppoon. So that leaves a gap in the Hanson succession line, and Rennick supporters are suggesting he think about it.
Rennick is quite the drawcard in regional Queensland, and he’s aligned not too far from where One Nation sits on the political spectrum. So don’t write him off just yet.
Will Warren go on?
Meanwhile, everyone remains abuzz that 7 December could be when the next election is held, spurred on by Labor backbenchers who heard the date floating around and gleefully shared it with Coalition types they came across at the airport heading back to their various electorates.
No one knows until you know, but we have entered the period where every sneeze is considered a potential harbinger of when the next election could be held. It has sent a bit of a shock through the Coalition, because despite Dutton consistently telling the party room it’s ready to go, it is not, in fact, ready to go. Preselections are not finalised in some pretty important seats. And there is still the prospect of some MPs retiring, which wouldn’t leave a lot of time to establish a new candidate in their stead.
One of the biggest question marks hangs over Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch. The 74-year-old had to be talked into running at the last election, but given he’d be close to 80 at the end of another term, it seems he is close to calling time. The state council have opened up his seat to a preselection committee, but Entsch did not return House Party’s message asking if he’d made up his mind to retire. If he did, it would make Leichhardt a hard retain for the LNP. And with Cowper, Bradfield, Parkes, Wannon, Capricornia, Menzies and Sturt looking like difficult holds for the LNP at this point in the electoral cycle, the list of potential losses is larger than the list of potential gains.
UK election’s Gaza vote ‘something to reflect on’
Dominating Labor chats is the potential of a winter cabinet reshuffle. If it happens, it’s unlikely to be a huge shake-up – and for people to enter, well, someone would have to leave. Which at this point in the game seems unlikely – especially when you have an election due in less than a year’s time.
But that hasn’t stopped the audition carousel. Top of the list is Murray Watt, who has been coyly batting away comments from colleagues and journalists that he could be in line for a promotion to either home affairs or immigration, while Tim Ayres and Jenny McAllister have also been upping their media appearance game in these past few weeks. That’s a bit tricky as they’re all from the same faction, and the Senate is pretty much at capacity for ministers as it is. Matt Keogh remains in the frame, even after messing up his audition, while Patrick Gorman is seen as a lead contender given his WA connection (the state of the moment) and his position as assistant minister to the prime minister – a spot usually given to someone a leader sees as talent, who just needs to be parked somewhere for a time until they, or conditions, are ready.
Also floating around the Labor group chats were the UK election results – not the Keir Starmer win, that was a given – but the number of pro-Palestine candidates who beat Labour candidates. Of note was that Starmer himself faced a 17.4% swing against him, with a pro-Palestine independent winning nearly 20% of the vote in his seat and the Greens taking 10%. Given the week Labor had, the UK results kicked off a flurry of “well, that was interesting” chatter, one Labor MP said. The number of anti-war candidates who beat Labour MPs in a year when Labour formed government was “something to reflect on,” another said. Quite. Especially since just hours before the UK results filtered in, Anthony Albanese found himself unable to use Fatima Payman’s title of “senator”, instead referring to the former caucus member as “Ms Payman” and noting that “Fatima Payman received around 1,600 votes in the WA election. The ALP box above the line received 511,000 votes.” Which is true. Payman received 1,681 votes above the line. That is still 396 more than Glenn Sterle received, despite him sitting above her on the ticket and having been in the Senate since 2005. Something to reflect on indeed.