Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump
Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump
| Noble Predictive Insights | Trump +3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Trump +1 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Trump +2 |
The polls in the average were all conducted before the attempted assassination of Donald J. Trump at a rally on Saturday. An event that dramatic has no precedent in a modern presidential campaign. The first polls after the shooting will probably be low-quality, snap polls from pollsters that do not have a history of reliability. And even after high-quality pollsters release new surveys, it’s reasonable to believe public opinion will change over the course of several weeks and amid the Republican convention. Updated July 14
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. If Biden and Trump can hold the states they carried by at least three percentage points in 2020, that leaves seven states that are widely viewed as the key battlegrounds. Let’s zoom in on them.
If the polls change, or miss, in Biden’s favor
Biden is also within range: He trails by a small margin in a few key states, and a shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.
A bipartisan poll in Wisconsin taken after the debate had Trump up five percentage points in the swing state. That’s part of the reason our Wisconsin average now shows Trump leading by two points. It is still early and we don’t have many swing state polls, but the ones that have come in show Trump building his lead in the states most likely to decide the election. Updated July 10
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
| Biggest recent polling miss | ||
|---|---|---|
| Wis. | 9 pts. (2020) | Range of polling miss
|
| Mich. | 6 pts. (2022) | |
| Pa. | 5 pts. (2022) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts. (2016) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts. (2022) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts. (2016) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts. (2012) |
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can filter by state, toggle to show only select pollsters, and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.
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Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Biden; to the right, for Trump.
| Current margin | polls | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Trump +2 | 32 | |
| Wis. | Trump +2 | 5 | |
| Mich. | Trump +2 | 2 | |
| Pa. | Trump +4 | 2 | |
| N.C. | Trump +5 | 1 | |
| Ariz. | Trump +5 | 2 | |
| Ga. | Trump +6 | 2 | |
| Nev. | Trump +6 | 3 |
Trump’s lead in the national polls grew after the debate, and post-debate polls showed him ahead by even more in most of the battleground states likely to decide the Electoral College. The post-debate New York Times/Siena College poll showed Trump up by six points among likely voters, and CNN/SSRS and Wall Street Journal polls showed Trump up six among registered voters. The post-debate polls were not uniformly in Trump’s favor, however: On Friday, NPR/PBS/Marist found President Biden with a two-point lead nationally. Updated July 12
We calculate averages for polls that ask voters to choose between Biden and Trump, and for polls that include Kennedy. (Many polls do both.) Here’s a comparison of the averages, nationally and in key states.
Third-party candidates present particular challenges for pollsters, and they can be a significant factor in elections. Here you can get a sense of how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might affect support for Biden and Trump. Just know that, historically, most polls have significantly overstated support for third-party candidates.
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.