Stock market woes - have you checked your portfolio lately?

DevilDancer

DevilDancer

Not the boss
Sep 27, 2001
49,456
22,621
North America
Be honest.

I moved 2/3 of my savings to a bond fund last month. I'm feeling pretty good about that now.

Won't come near offsetting the losses in my 401(k) though.
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
8,085
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I know about the market going down but I haven't actually checked my portfolio. I'm holding in the stock market for a long time so I'm not worried about it, but I will wait for signs of the drop ending before I start dumping more cash in.

Some experts think it will bounce back just as quickly as it went down. The IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath stated, “There is a scenario where all the hit takes place in the first quarter, and by April, like a V-shape, China is back to normal.” There are quite a few similarities to the outbreak of SARS in 2003, and, if history is likely to repeat itself, the recovery will be just as fast (or faster) than the downturn.

We'll see...
 
DaBest13

DaBest13

Simply DaBest
Jun 23, 2001
51,421
14,821
Philadelphia
Honestly it was such a rally leading up to this, that even with the tanking it's sort of a *shrug* for me... it's a market correction more than anything else that is being amplified by coronoavirus and then amplified more by general fear imo... it will stabilize soon. my growth over the last 6 months is still net positive at the moment. Obviously nowhere near as high as it was just a few days ago, but still good enough for my longterm objectives.

I'm just glad I haven't been buying in much lately. That's always frustrating. It almost works out for me with things dipping now, because I was planning to start up some of my normal purchasing patterns soon... so if things bottom out in the next few weeks thats a decent time to buy.
 
jabroni12

jabroni12

Super Star
Aug 2, 2001
76,605
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I check my holdings 3-4 times a year. In general I know things are rough right now but I couldn't care less about short term moves in my accounts. I'm not losing shares and still have decades before I will be cashing anything out so no reason to worry about periods of losses that happen every so often.

In fact I'll probably double down here soon. I held off on investing money in my IRA for this year because of Super Bowl expenses so I'm all in on buying now while things are temporarily on the way down.

I don't buy the panic of any "this time could be different" narratives that pop up every so often. If the economy crashes to the point that my investments are irrecoverably screwed then I'm betting that my investments will be the least of my concerns. This is most likely going to be a short term dip (short can still mean multiple months) because of the coronavirus scare and concerns on how it will impact the economy with so much manufacturing in China affected. Like Troopa referenced, the sars scare had markets go down something like 14-15% in 2 months but then recovered just as fast and by the end of the year the yearly returns were 28ish percent up.

If anyone gets lucky timing the market, good for them, but 99% of the time people cost themselves money by trying to do so. For example you may get out before the drop but are you going to get back in before the jump? If you get back in after it recovers beyond what you sold for then you still could come out behind than if you had just left it alone. Not to mention any fees and/or taxes incurred from a sale/switch to a different investment. And most jumps at the start of a recovery are big over a short period of time where it is very easy to miss out. Unless you are the luckiest person ever, time in the market is always going to beat trying to time the market over any significant time frame.

But seriously, if you aren't needing the money soon then you should try your best not to panic over the media blowing things up. If you do need the money soon then it shouldn't be in a volatile form of investment to begin with.
 
AvocadoGenesis

AvocadoGenesis

I'm a G...CB President
Dec 17, 2002
55,677
15,605
jabroni12 said:
But seriously, if you aren't needing the money soon then you should try your best not to panic over the media blowing things up. If you do need the money soon then it shouldn't be in a volatile form of investment to begin with.
Click to expand...

^^^

I look at my accounts occasionally, but market swings don't dictate how much I invest or how I allocate.

it aint about market timing, its about time in market
1582866885095.png
 
Thorsden

Thorsden

Thoroughly Unoriginal
Jun 4, 2012
6,585
4,391
Wales
I don’t know this for sure, but the number of Americans invested in the stock market seems much higher than the number of Brits (I don’t have a portfolio for example).

But maybe that’s just to do with me being in the public sector.
 
GSFAkimboJoe

GSFAkimboJoe

Your Advertisment Here
Sep 10, 2007
18,350
14,394
Southern California
Yes I am an adult, I check my stocks and overseas holdings regularly.

*adjusts monocle*

The uhh... numbers are uhh... trending... at uhhh... acceptable speeds. They are well within uhhh... normal uhhh... tolerances.

I am lead to believe they are down at the moment, so, I blame the government naturally... woe is me. My vast fortunes!
 
supergreg64

supergreg64

The GCB President
Aug 1, 2000
49,558
14,512
http://firsthour.net
Thorsden said:
I don’t know this for sure, but the number of Americans invested in the stock market seems much higher than the number of Brits (I don’t have a portfolio for example).

But maybe that’s just to do with me being in the public sector.
Click to expand...
Our 401ks and mutual funds are invested in the stock market. I for one don't own any stocks directly except my own company's, but have a lot invested in the big, shared funds.
 
jabroni12

jabroni12

Super Star
Aug 2, 2001
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I think it's in the 55-59% range as far as how many Americans have investments of some kind. I assume the majority of that is 401k plans or similar retirement savings plans through jobs. And probably a lot of them don't contribute very much, just enough to show up in statistics as owning something.
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
8,085
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Here's how Fidelity crunches the numbers (from August 2019):

Age 20–29:
Average 401(k) balance: $11,800
Median 401(k) balance: $4,300
Contribution rate (% of income): 7%

Age 30–39:
Average 401(k) balance: $42,400
Median 401(k) balance: $16,500
Contribution rate (% of income): 7.8%

Among millennials (which Fidelity defines as those born between 1981–1997), 38% of workers increased their savings in Q2 2019.2 This generation is the most likely to contribute to a Roth 401(k), too.

Age 40–49:
Average 401(k) balance: $102,700
Median 401(k) balance: $36,000
Contribution rate (% of income): 8.5%

Age 50–59:
Average 401(k) balance: $174,100
Median 401(k) balance: $60,900
Contribution rate (% of income): 10.1%

Age 60–69:
Average 401(k) balance: $195,500
Median 401(k) balance: $62,000
Contribution rate (% of income): 11.2%
 
AvocadoGenesis

AvocadoGenesis

I'm a G...CB President
Dec 17, 2002
55,677
15,605
i think im at 15% because i really hate work. hoping bernie sanders will give me free retirement so i can spend all the money i saved on jet skis and hot dogs

((((i actually dont hate working that much but i dont want to have to wait to retire til my body is all broken and i'm too toxic from watching fox news all day to go anywhere and i dont really see myself ever having the freedoms [or wanting the stressors] that come with being self-employed)))
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
8,085
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I really want to jump in and share my number but I really don't want people to hate me. 😬 😓

I'll just say our contribution percentage to retirement/investment funds is a lot. We're both engineers with no kids so it's not really that impressive.
 
AvocadoGenesis

AvocadoGenesis

I'm a G...CB President
Dec 17, 2002
55,677
15,605
ya i'm also living the dink dream. waiting for bernie to make it free to raise children before i get into that mess
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
8,085
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jabroni12

jabroni12

Super Star
Aug 2, 2001
76,605
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lol logged in to 401k and greeted with a note about don't panic.

Down 8.29% for the year. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
Andyster

Andyster

No Longer a Noob
Oct 12, 2014
6,543
4,055
Am I crazy that I just don't check my 401k on the regular?

I don't really mess with it, every so often I bump the contribution rate up a bit more. I just have it in an index fund and sometimes it goes up sometimes it goes down and sometimes it stays the same but I'm decades from retirement.

What good is it to know what it's at and give me another source of anxiety.
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
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-Troopa- said:
After the markets closed on Friday, China reported much lower than anticipated manufacturing numbers: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/chinese-manufacturing-pmi-594

There is some speculation that this will push the market further down on Monday, on top of everything else going on.
Click to expand...
Seems like that speculation was wrong since the market has bounced back 5% today.

www.usatoday.com

Dow jumps nearly 1,300 points on hopes that central banks can boost economies as coronavirus spreads

The Dow bounced back from a coronavirus-related sell-off, surging nearly 1,300 points. Central banks are poised to help combat the outbreak's effects.
www.usatoday.com

Guess I'll go ahead and buy some. Still the cheapest it has been in months.
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
8,085
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Andyster said:
Am I crazy that I just don't check my 401k on the regular?

I don't really mess with it, every so often I bump the contribution rate up a bit more. I just have it in an index fund and sometimes it goes up sometimes it goes down and sometimes it stays the same but I'm decades from retirement.
Click to expand...
Nah, you're doing things right. It's best to not check it and worry. You're staying the course.

I check my balances around 5-6 times per year to update a spreadsheet I have that keeps track of various accounts and how my net worth is changing over time.
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
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If it stays fucked for this year (way too early to tell) then it'll be interesting to see what effect it has on the election.
 
m00m00m00

m00m00m00

ಠ_ಠ
Jun 14, 2001
82,536
14,203
rural people around here are 95% republican straight ticket no matter what happens

the primary turnout showed that
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
8,085
9,101
Trump could record himself throwing an infant in front of a bus and they'd be like, "ya know, that baby had it coming. MAGA!!"


And that's why I'll keep buying.
 
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jabroni12

jabroni12

Super Star
Aug 2, 2001
76,605
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ツ
Just have to hope you don't get a decade like the 2000s where the stock market was slightly down at the end of 10 years. Lot of lost growth potential. But that took 2 big drops, the 2008/9 plunge especially.
 
jabroni12

jabroni12

Super Star
Aug 2, 2001
76,605
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Roller coaster morning. +3.5% to -0.5% to +1.5%. Probably the type of daily volatility we'll see for a while.

Getting 401k match tomorrow so is it bad to kind of hope today is a down day?
 
blinkz0rz

blinkz0rz

Don't forget to bring a towel.
Aug 10, 2008
24,388
8,485
Calatia
Yeah mine dropped a bit more.

But in good news, it is exactly at the point where it was this same value last year. So really, I just went down from the interest that I earned in retrospect. Not too bad, it isn't the end.
 
m00m00m00

m00m00m00

ಠ_ಠ
Jun 14, 2001
82,536
14,203
www.forbes.com

Breaking Out With Bill O'Neil

The publisher of the momentum investors' bible, ''Investor's Business Daily,'' zeroes in on strong stocks.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

random article i found when i was researching something separate yesterday

IBD list from 2009. lot of those turned out really well.

ibd is still a thing today.

some people just buy the dips and it works out. some play the long game, or short or whatever

all i know is i need to stop looking at amd stock and seeing it go up to the moon lmao

i totally called that one when it was cheap as hell
 
DevilDancer

DevilDancer

Not the boss
Sep 27, 2001
49,456
22,621
North America
-Troopa- said:
If it stays fucked for this year (way too early to tell) then it'll be interesting to see what effect it has on the election.
Click to expand...
I disagree that it's too early to tell. We're definitely headed for a major slowdown, almost certainly a recession. The travel industry is taking a massive hit, and it will last for months. On top of that, manufacturing may take a big hit too, though we may be able to avoid a Wuhan-style shutdown domestically. Restaurants, sports, anything that generates money from gatherings is already feeling impacts, and we're just at the beginning.

Trump's one strength in public perception is his handling of the economy. A recession or big slowdown on the eve of the election almost certainly sinks him. And if everyone suddenly knows someone killed by the outbreak, some will blame Trump.

That's not to say the stock market will continue to slide the whole time. Stocks and the economy at large are only loosely correlated.
 
-Troopa-

-Troopa-

No Longer a Noob
Jul 7, 2019
8,085
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If I had to guess, you are probably right. The stock market just does some surprising things sometimes. For years many experts have been expecting a bear run to happen "any day now". It does seem like it's here though.
 
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