Inflation Thread

[PoorPigg]

Debt to the penny from the US Treasury https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny

about $296,524,000,000 increase to US debt in August 2023.

 

[gsilver]

Ooooh! It's on sale!
What a deal!

 

[PoorPigg]

In September, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.7 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in September (SA); up 4.1 percent over the year."

October 2023 CPI data are scheduled to be released on November 14, 2023, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

"While price increases have cooled over the past year — the inflation rate has dropped from 9% to 3.2% — most economists say little to none of the drop came from the law." https://apnews.com/article/biden-in...-anniversary-9950f7e814ac71e89eee3f452ab17f71

 

[PoorPigg]

A look at deflation September 2023 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/13/def...ation-heres-the-september-2023-breakdown.html

 

[PoorPigg]

"In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 19-20, 2023, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2023 to 2026 and over the longer run."
Federal Reserve Report, September 20, 2023 The first table affords breakdowns of past data, relevant data streams and projects; this table is best used in full screen mode, or so I believe.

Inflation rising faster than projections while stabilizing metrics.

 

[PoorPigg]

FRB indicates the average American household is a millionaire. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/standard-american-household-now-millionaire-104639340.html
Average inflation gain after inflation is 37%

 

[gsilver]

Housing costs becoming impossible makes everyone who already has theirs look rich.

 

[PoorPigg]

US Debt Clock https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Oregon house costs:

Typical Home Values: $490,224

1-year Value Change: -1.9%

 

[PoorPigg]

Surprisingly, the wealth gap between rich and poor narrowed over the past three years. The biggest wealth increase during that period came to the 13 million families in the 80th to 90th percentile of income distribution. Their median wealth climbed 69% to $747,000. https://www.thestreet.com/personal-...-richer-than-you-think?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

 

[sdevito]

Surprisingly, the wealth gap between rich and poor narrowed over the past three years. The biggest wealth increase during that period came to the 13 million families in the 80th to 90th percentile of income distribution. Their median wealth climbed 69% to $747,000. https://www.thestreet.com/personal-...-richer-than-you-think?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

I'd bet that is almost entirely due to housing price increases.

 

[gsilver]

US Debt Clock https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Oregon house costs:

Typical Home Values: $490,224

1-year Value Change: -1.9%

Price of a mortgage of $490,224 at 2.65% interest: $1965
Price of a mortgage of $490,224 at 8% interest: $3266

66.2% increase from interest rates alone, nevermind the explosion of the value itself.

 

[sdevito]

Price of a mortgage of $490,224 at 2.65% interest: $1965
Price of a mortgage of $490,224 at 8% interest: $3266

66.2% increase from interest rates alone, nevermind the explosion of the value itself.

The scary part is prolonged high mortgage rates haven't tanked the market. Prices remain high after they shot up during the pandemic.

So what is going to happen when interest rates start falling?

 

[gsilver]

I think that there are a ton of properties in a similar situation as the one I'm staying in right now:
A random person bought a property at a rock-bottom interest rate during the pandemic but at a place that turned out to be inconvenient, and is happy to just collect rent *cough*and skimp on required repairs *cough* at a level that's above the mortgage

Not to mention all the industry investors,


If the place I'm staying at wasn't bought at such a low interest rate, it would have been sold, and it would be occupied by permanent residents instead of a guy who has to spend the next 3 days dreading every time I get a message from my landlord "wanting a have a conversation" before he shows up where I live and I find out how he's choosing to make my life worse.

Nevermind that it's nearly 40% more for 50% less space than what my pre-pandemic mortgage was + I had security* and could have pets. Not having pets while also not having the social skills or energy to make friends is the real killer.

* - Until the job I had had a huge layoffs to increase their stock price at the beginning of the pandemic, of course... I was planning on leaving the area, anyway, and just get a new house when I found a new job, but then all this fuckery happened (real estate bubble, next job having an absolutely toxic manager, health falling apart).

 

[-Troopa-]

 

[-Troopa-]

Here's something for $199k.

MLS 1856100 | Michael F Vieyra (flexmls.com)

I mean, it has potential...

 

[OneBigClam]

What's wrong with Milwaukee? Must not be a very desirable place to live these days.

 

[adidas198]

Here's something for $199k.

MLS 1856100 | Michael F Vieyra (flexmls.com)

I mean, it has potential...

Meanwhile here in California this is what $1,000,000 gets you.

 

[gsilver]

This one is only 50 miles away from downtown and $325,000:

If you want over 1500 square feet, it's going to cost you... in *many* ways.
*cough*and the ~$300k <1000 sq ft ones that are closer in were still built in the early 1900s.

 

[PoorPigg]

Worldwide net private wealth stood at $454.4 trillion in 2022.
Here’s how it was distributed across various levels of net worth, which takes a person’s financial and real assets such as housing, and subtracts their debt:

Net Worth	Number of Adults	Share of Adults	Total Wealth	Share of Global Wealth
More than $1 million	59.4M	1.1%	$208.3T	45.8%
$100,000 to $1 million	642.0M	12.0%	$178.9T	39.4%
$10,000 to $100,000	1.8B	34.4%	$61.9T	13.6%
Less than $10,000	2.8B	52.5%	$5.3T	1.2%

Meanwhile, the past two years has seen an increase in account closings. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/business/banks-accounts-close-suddenly.html

 

[gsilver]

However bad it is here, at least I'm not in bay area California.

$1.55 million for a meth house

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/668-Potomac-Ct-95136/home/1403998

...As in, it has an actual meth lab in it, and it's up to the buyer to make it safe to inhabit.

 

[gsilver]

Commercial property values on "Non performing loans" drop 41% in the US:

Warning on U.S. office real estate drags German bankâs shares lower

Shares of a German lender fell as much as 14% after a profit warning due to the struggling commercial real estate market in the U.S.

www.marketwatch.com

...Anyone else thinking of living in a commercial building?

...I actually did once (rented a room in the office part of a warehouse when I lived in Bay Area california) It had no windows and very little insulation (good thing it doesn't get that cold in Bay Area CA!) but it was surprisingly decent after back-to-back loud roommate situations.

 

[PoorPigg]

Falling behind on credit card and automobile debt https://www.investopedia.com/under-...ind-on-car-loans-and-credit-card-debt-8391691
"With this latest increase, credit card balances have risen by $223 billion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Americans’ credit card debt is $152 billion higher than the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019, when balances stood at $927 billion. However, thanks to record interest rates, stubborn inflation and myriad other economic factors, credit card balances are likely only going to climb, at least in the near future." https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

Credit card debt in US at $1.08 trillion, with a "T". https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/cre...1point08-trillion-record-how-we-got-here.html

 

[sdevito]

Falling behind on credit card and automobile debt https://www.investopedia.com/under-...ind-on-car-loans-and-credit-card-debt-8391691
"With this latest increase, credit card balances have risen by $223 billion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Americans’ credit card debt is $152 billion higher than the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019, when balances stood at $927 billion. However, thanks to record interest rates, stubborn inflation and myriad other economic factors, credit card balances are likely only going to climb, at least in the near future." https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

Credit card debt in US at $1.08 trillion, with a "T". https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/cre...1point08-trillion-record-how-we-got-here.html

Wasn't like a few months ago every one way saying one of the main drivers of inflation was people had so much pent up savings from COVID?

 

[PoorPigg]

Wasn't like a few months ago every one way saying one of the main drivers of inflation was people had so much pent up savings from COVID?

Yup. Almost a year's worth of that consumer-driven economic good times.

"The number of 401(k) plan participants taking hardship distributions increased by 13% between the second and third quarters, according to an analysis by Bank of America of its clients’ employee benefit programs.

That figure now stands at 18,040, the highest level in at least the past five quarters since Bank of America started tracking this data."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/economy/americans-401k-plans-bill-payments/index.html

 

[PoorPigg]

Mortgages dropping slightly. REDFIN report

Brazilian inflation rate dropping and a reduction to interest rates likely Bloomberg

Turkey Inflation Rate is at 59.10%, compared to 48.00% last month and 80.10% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 26.38%. ycharts

October 2023 CPI data are scheduled to be released on November 14, 2023, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

 

[-Troopa-]

 

[gsilver]

Only 23% of households overall, and 7.8% of rental households could afford the median home in my state:

Here’s what experts think about the future of Utah housing prices

Two housing experts gave different predictions for Utah's housing market and home prices Friday morning during the Ivory Institute.

www.sltrib.com

...And they say it's going to get even more expensive.

//Totally not a bubble

 

[PoorPigg]

The scary part is prolonged high mortgage rates haven't tanked the market. Prices remain high after they shot up during the pandemic.

So what is going to happen when interest rates start falling?

Hold on to that thought about tanking. Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley saying recession likely https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...y-ex-new-york-fed-chief-dudley-says#xj4y7vzkg
Add in the M2 situation, bank insolvancies, and credit card debt.

 

[PoorPigg]

In October, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was unchanged, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted.

Food overall up 6.2%. Food at home up 3.1 %; full service meals and snacks up 4.1% Candy and chewing gum up 7.5% September 2022 to September 2023.

Services less energy services up 5.5%

CPI Home

www.bls.gov

November 2023 CPI data are scheduled to be released on December 12, 2023, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

"The U.S. dollar saw an 8% decline in its share of global reserves in 2022 — causing some to question whether the dollar’s days of dominance are over."
Janet Yellen in Money Wise

 

[PoorPigg]

$46.90 average price of Thanksgiving dinner for 10 in 2020.
$61.17 average price of Thanksgiving dinner for 10 in 2023.
Price 1990 to 2023 https://www.statista.com/statistics/208104/average-price-of-a-thanksgiving-dinner/

 

[PoorPigg]

Store-front leases are sub- sub-market levels. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/portland-oregon-downtown-revival-24b49291

 

[PoorPigg]

44% of boomers reported that their financial situation is actually worse as compared to last year. Survey

 

[gsilver]

Local gas prices

 

[-Troopa-]

Pretty good. We are still around $3 here.

There are some gas stations in Texas that are under $2.

 

[m00m00m00]

Pretty good. We are still around $3 here.

There are some gas stations in Texas that are under $2.

236 at Costco, most others in the 240s

 

[gsilver]

236 at Costco, most others in the 240s

Holy crap.

My picture was the first time I've even seen it below $3 in recent memory.

 

[-Troopa-]

The lowest I've seen is this one on Reddit, though he didn't say where in Texas he was.

236 at Costco, most others in the 240s

 

[DevilDancer]

The only thing that really pisses me off is food prices. Supermarkets are absolutely gouging.

They play this game where they alternate between charging by the unit v. charging by the pound, particularly on vegetables. They switch every 6 months or so in order to confuse consumers, and each time they raise the price.

Other prices don't seem so bad. Clothes are up a good bit. Electronics aren't any worse than usual. Basic online goods seem to be steady.

Oh, I forgot, car insurance has exploded in this area. Mine has doubled in the last few years with no accidents or tickets.

 

[gsilver]

The lowest I've seen is this one on Reddit, though he didn't say where in Texas he was.

View attachment 1094511

Where the fuck are you? The 90s?

 

[gsilver]

Oh, I forgot, car insurance has exploded in this area. Mine has doubled in the last few years with no accidents or tickets.

Eep. That one hasn't hit here yet, but I'm dreading when it does, especially because I'm stuck on Geico right now because I had an at-fault accident in 2021, so I'm at their mercy for a while (and I know first-hand that they'll screw me if I'm ever in an accident, regardless of fault).

Of course, I crawled back to Geico after leaving them after they screwed me in a not-at-fault accident in 2015... because the new carrier didn't tell me when they didn't renew my policy, so I was without auto insurance for several months and Geico was the first company that wasn't going to hold that against me.

 

[PoorPigg]

Gas $3.90, I paid $3.60 with my discount.

 

[-Troopa-]

I saw a map of how car insurance has been increasing in different states, and I think Florida almost doubled within one or two years? Crazy.

 

[supersaiyenl4goku]

The only thing that really pisses me off is food prices. Supermarkets are absolutely gouging.

They play this game where they alternate between charging by the unit v. charging by the pound, particularly on vegetables. They switch every 6 months or so in order to confuse consumers, and each time they raise the price.

Other prices don't seem so bad. Clothes are up a good bit. Electronics aren't any worse than usual. Basic online goods seem to be steady.

Oh, I forgot, car insurance has exploded in this area. Mine has doubled in the last few years with no accidents or tickets.

I picked up pizza last night, a large deep dish went up almost $5 in the past year. That’s after increasing the year before.

I’m in Wisconsin in a smaller city for context. It was $31 and change after tax and before tip. That feels insane.

 

[PoorPigg]

Source This source includes more detailed breakdowns from BLS data.

The average household's monthly expenses are $6,081 ($72,967 over the entire year). That's up from $5,557 ($66,928 over the entire year) in 2022.
The average annual income after taxes is $83,195, up from $78,743 in 2022.
Housing is the largest average cost at $2,025 per month, making up 33% of typical spending.

 

[east1226]

$4.35 for gas here.

 

[PoorPigg]

In November, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in November (SA); up 4.0 percent over the year (NSA).

Food at home up 1.7%, food away from home up 5.3%.

December 2023 CPI data are scheduled to be released on January 11, 2024, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

 

[PoorPigg]

In December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in December (SA); up 3.9 percent over the year. Source

CPI-U All Items: +0.3%in Dec 2023 NSA +3.4%since Dec 2022 Source

January 2024 CPI data are scheduled to be released on February 13, 2024, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

 

[gsilver]

A Dave's Double and a small fry at Wendy's, no drink:
$10.70

 

[PoorPigg]

Happy Meals at $18.00

McDonald’s is promising ‘attention to affordability’ after the price of Big Mac meals hits $18

McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski is promising to bring back “affordability” to the fast food chain as sales growth slows.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[-Troopa-]

$18 for a Big Mac meal is pretty funny. It's at a rest stop in Darien.

Darien, which is located in Fairfield County, has a median income of $250,000, according to the latest census data.

Sounds like whoever runs this location knows the locals have money.

The McDonald’s — located off Interstate 95 in Darien, one of the country’s wealthiest towns in upscale Fairfield County — also charges $19 for a Quarter Pounder with Cheese and Bacon meal or a Quarter Pounder Deluxe, both of which include medium fries and a medium soft drink.

At my local McDonald's, you can get a Quarter Pounder meal for $6. Gotta use the mobile app. That's where the deals are.

The only thing I usually eat at McDonalds is their $5 breakfast combo, if I happen to be up and about before 10:30am. Egg McMuffin, hash brown and a drink. I love that combo. It's my fast-food cocaine.