Sean OMalley

There’s a whole world of small farms and small businesses being powered by offgrid renewable energy. Understanding the business models that make it possible is critical for this bold new world. At the #GlobalSouthSouthSummit, innovators from across Africa and Asia will learn from each other to advance a sustainable world free of poverty.

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Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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Regulatory clarity for responsible crypto innovation is emerging in the US and stands to catalyze the market adoption of such innovations. When regulations are clear, consumers and innovators all benefit. Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (#FIT21) is expected to pass with bipartisan support in Congress. FIT21 would redefine how securities issuers have to comply with existing federal law and Supreme Court precedent. The bill would create a new definition specific to digital assets, to identify when they're digital securities or digital commodities and whether the SEC or CFTC should be the primary spot market regulator. This collaborative approach signals a shift away from the current unclear, antiquated and antagonistic processes in some of the US regulatory agencies.

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Earlier this year, we surveyed our fellow Los Angeles-based GPs to get a pulse check on the LA venture ecosystem. Here’s what we found: 💗 Deal flow is healthy, and most LA venture investors (68%) are seeing the same or more deal flow YoY. ✈ LA investors are spending time in a variety of markets, with NYC, Austin, and SF following closely on LA’s heels. 🔍 Innovation is concentrated in AI and machine learning, space, and commerce. 💸 Funding is happening, but it’s barbell-shaped, with deals concentrated at the early and late stages. Funding post-Series A has been challenging. 🚩 LA is differentiated, but not without its challenges. Key difficulties include not attracting enough AI talent (despite having the largest number of engineers graduating from our region over any other in the United States); talent relocated to more tax-friendly or less expensive locations; and the great SoCal / NoCal divide 🙏 Thank you to all our many respondents! I’m so glad to be part of a venture ecosystem that includes great minds like Anna Barber, Brent Murri, W. Christine Choi, Sarah Tomolonius, Rob Smith, Win Chevapravatdumrong, John Tabis, Jill Royster, Jesse Draper, Ashley Balla, Britt Danneman, Tram Lai, Carmen Palafox, Elaine Russell, Deborah Benton Amanda Schutzbank, Brian Lee, Petra Griffith, Minnie Ingersoll, Shamin Walsh, Gabe Greenbaum...wow, this list could go on forever...plus too many other exceptional humans to name. You know who you are! Explore our findings more deeply with our survey dashboard: https://bit.ly/3JsaLaB

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When I first read Jevgenijs Kazanins's very excellent fintech take on why Cash App Pay could be the next major driver of Block’s growth, I was floored by his initially compelling case that if Cash App can incentivize more payments payments volume to go through Cash App Pay, they can drive massive gross profit uplift, because Cash App Pay’s take rate is substantially higher than Cash Card’s take rate on purchase volume (2-3x). But if it were true, why hasn’t Cash App taken advantage? Whereas Jevgenijs is more optimistic about the ~$2.5bn in GPV that Cash App Pay has generated in its first ~2.5 years of existence, I find it downright embarrassing. That’s less than 1% of Square’s GPV after two years in the wild? And that’s despite it being essentially pre-installed on every terminal with no change in hardware required. I started to have a sinking feeling that maybe something was missing in the calculus. And as I dove deeper, it became clear that the “magic” take rate uptick we thought we’d found was more of a magic trick, relying on some deception. The seeming increase in take rate comes about like this. Normally, when a Cash App user makes a purchase, Cash App acts as the Issuer which means there are several intermediaries between what the merchant is charged and what Block earns on the transaction, meaning its ultimate take rate is relatively low. But in the case of Cash App Pay, there’s potentially a few magic tricks at work. The first is that in this case, Block is facilitating the Square merchant’s acquiring POS AND it’s issuing the Cash App user’s debit card, thereby cutting the intermediaries down in the typical payments flow and seemingly increasing Cash App take rates by 35-50% (instead of just interchange, you’re now getting interchange and markup). But then gets even better with the second trick, because if you’re both the acquirer and the issuer, *you don’t even need the payment network at all*. You can simply move money by book transfer between your merchant’s bank account and your user’s bank account in a perfectly closed loop payment network. Suddenly, Cash App Pay has a magical 2.9% take rate with no money movement costs at all. The problem with these magic tricks, like the ones in life, is that they are actually using some deception to hide what’s truly happening. Let’s play it out. In the status quo, without Cash App Pay, Square would earn ~1.85% in acquirer markup and Cash App would earn 0.90% in interchange for a total of 2.75% in take rate. In the Cash App Pay case, Square and Cash App would split the 2.90% Merchant Discount rate they artfully charged without having any money movement. So instead of the 2-3x markup, the uptick is more like +15bps (+5%). So maybe there isn’t a massive take rate arbitrage, but Block should still be focusing on its closed loop payment network because it represents huge opportunity for other reasons. Read the full post at https://lnkd.in/d93nkn29.

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🌟Innovative VC Firm Overcomes Exits Drought with Secondary Sales🌟 ⛵Navigating a challenging landscape where exits are scarce, Santa Barbara Venture Partners (SBVP) has pioneered a novel approach to sustain its growth and attract investors for its second fund: secondary sales. Instead of waiting for traditional exits like IPOs or acquisitions, SBVP opted to sell shares of its portfolio companies, demonstrating its ability to generate returns for investors and stand out in a competitive market. 🎤According to Dan Engel, founder and managing partner of SBVP, these secondary transactions have been a game-changer, sparking investor interest and bolstering the firm's credibility. By leveraging its recent successes, including a lucrative stake in sports-betting company DraftKings Inc.' acquisition of digital lottery app Jackpocket, SBVP seized the opportunity to return profits to its limited partners (LPs) and pave the way for its second fund. 💡Engel highlighted the challenges faced by young VC firms in raising subsequent funds, particularly amid a downturn in exit activity and heightened investor scrutiny. With traditional exit routes becoming increasingly elusive, the pressure is on for firms to demonstrate tangible returns and establish a track record of success. ✨"For us, secondary sales have been a game-changer. They've helped us return profits to our LPs and attract investors for our second fund," said Dan Engel. 💰For SBVP, the decision to pursue secondary sales was driven by the need to provide liquidity to LPs and validate its investment thesis in the eyes of prospective investors. By strategically offloading portions of its holdings in high-performing portfolio companies like Bark Technologies and Rad AI, SBVP not only generated substantial returns but also bolstered investor confidence in its ability to deliver results. ⚠Despite the complexities and potential stigma associated with early share sales, Engel emphasized the importance of prioritizing investor returns and seizing opportunities to unlock value for stakeholders. With a focus on profitability and transparency, SBVP remains committed to its mission of delivering sustainable growth and maximizing returns for its LPs. 🔍 "Returning profits to our investors is our top priority. By strategically selling shares, we're proving our commitment to delivering results and driving value for our stakeholders," added Engel. As SBVP continues to explore secondary transactions and expand its investor base, the firm stands as a testament to innovation and resilience in the face of market challenges. 🚀 ✅ Looking to raise capital for your #fund and increase the international pool of your LP #investors?   🤝 Need warm #LP introductions?   📝 Selling #secondaries to increase liquidity?   🧐 Looking for co-investments?   ▶ G+QUANT's link for inquiries and fund decks: https://lnkd.in/gjC_EuTE #VCInnovation #SecondarySalesSuccess #InvestorReturns #ValueCreation 

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I am honored to host Nolan Bushnell for a fireside chat at TechCon SoCal 2024 in San Diego on May 24th. We'll discuss how his innovations at Atari laid the groundwork for today's tech landscape and what lessons we can draw for the future. 🌟 Why Nolan Bushnell is a Must-Hear for Every Tech Enthusiast🌟 🕹️ Pioneering the Video Game Industry: Bushnell's creation of Atari and the iconic game Pong marked the beginning of the video game era, democratizing technology through entertainment. By democratizing technology through entertainment, Bushnell made electronics and computing accessible, inspiring a generation and catalyzing the tech ecosystem. 👔 Redefining Startup Culture: Bushnell invented a new breed of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs: visionary, bold, and nonconformist. His management style and the work environment he fostered at Atari—including laid-back elements like beer and ping pong—helped set a template for Silicon Valley's informal and innovative corporate culture, influencing giants like Google and Facebook. 🌱 Innovating Venture Capital: Bushnell became a crucial pivot in VC history by becoming the first example of how new business models over technology advancement become VC "fundable". Sequoia Capital's first seed investment concept in Atari demonstrated the profitability of supporting early-stage consumer tech businesses. It broadened VC horizons to include software and entertainment, impacting how venture capital operates today. 🚀 Driving Silicon Valley's Evolution: The Foundation of Silicon Valley was Arthur Rock funding Fairchild Semiconductor & Intel, establishing the semiconductor industry, and putting the silicon in Silicon Valley. The expansion phase was Don Valentine's investment in Atari, expanding the focus from hardware to software and entertainment, creating the video game industry, and expanding Silicon Valley's tech ecosystem. Bushnell's role enabled the Transformation Phase of Silicon with the 1980 IPOs of Apple and Genentech, showcasing SV's innovation breadth across multiple sectors. 🔗 Enabling Icons: Bushnell provided Steve Jobs, who did not have a college degree, with his first job inspiration for the idea of bringing computers to home users, invaluable introductions and opportunities, and influenced the birth of Apple. 🎮 Inspiring Future Innovators: By integrating fun into computer use, Bushnell likely accelerated technological innovation by making computing appealing to those who might not have otherwise engaged with it. His work at Atari made the daunting world of computers relatable and exciting, inspiring many future founders and technologists. Nolan's influence is evident in the increased computer literacy and the surge in tech-driven career interests among the youth of his time. Connect with over 80 early-stage investors and hundreds of founders from San Diego, the Bay Area, Austin, Denver, and New York. Explore more about the event at https://lnkd.in/gTYMN65n

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Access to scaling/ working capital for small to midsize businesses is difficult to come by. Pipe is changing that by embedding their financial solution into the current workflow of small/ midsize businesses. This is literally a game changer. See Luke Voiles' post and the Fintech Nexus article to learn more.

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At an LP’s annual meeting: ~100 quality VC and growth equity firms gave brief overviews. <5 said they invest in consumer. The consumer is the engine of the economy and 2/3 of GDP but is a bad word. Watch - we’ll look back and this will be a great time to invest in consumer.

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Many early-stage and high-growth businesses struggle to secure funding from traditional sources like banks due to risk aversion and regulatory constraints. Strategic partnerships between traditional lenders and fintech companies can address this by expanding lending options and providing customized solutions for SMBs. This collaboration has the potential to reshape business financing, creating a more inclusive and diverse financial ecosystem in the future. #Fintech

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Block, the parent company of Square and Cash App, aims to leverage its dual ownership to create synergy between its point-of-sale software and peer-to-peer payments app. Jack Dorsey, Block's founder, highlighted the advantage of having relationships with both merchants and consumers, stating it's a rare position in commerce and payments. Ryan Budd, Cash App's head of financial products, hinted at plans to integrate a small business experience into Square and incentivize Cash App users to engage with Square merchants. Block is focused on connecting Cash App's consumer base with Square's merchant network, aiming to transform Cash App into a consumer app for interacting with Square merchants. This move aligns with Block's strategy to dominate various aspects of the consumer ecosystem and potentially monetize consumer spending data for advertising purposes. Read More Here: https://lnkd.in/eh-8KS9V Eugene Tsay Wade Robison John O'Beirne Emily C. Chiu Eileen Wiens Jim McKelvey Branded Hospitality Ventures #innovation #venturecapital #hospitality #technology Owen Jennings (OBJ) Brooke Ellis Jamie (Russo) HicksMing-Tai Huh

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Be in the know on #payments news with this week’s #WeekendReads ⬇️ 1. CU 2.0 Podcast: James Colassano on Real Time Payments (RTP) Coming At You https://lnkd.in/g-ru-iXg / CU 2.0 2. New Study Highlights Tech Trends and Top Priorities for Banks in 2024 and 2025 https://lnkd.in/gS-gsKA4 / Bank Automation News 3. Is Request to Pay the New Frontier of Payments in Europe? https://lnkd.in/dH9z-HHK / Payments Cards & Mobile 4. Instant Payments Drive Profits for the Small Restaurants That Use Them https://lnkd.in/eXAyhUx5 / PYMNTS 5. Why Banks and Credit Unions Are Moving Slowly to Real-Time Payments https://lnkd.in/gZ3jz56g / PaymentsJournal

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The Information broke the news of Ramp getting a 36% increase in valuation for a #fintech supported by Founders Fund and Khosla Ventures, providing a 36% increase from their last financing round. The fact that Keith Rabois led the round from his new firm at Khosla Ventures provides an incredible stamp of approval since I am sure the hurdle was that much higher, internally, to essentially double down on his legacy investment from Founders Fund. What do you think? #management #venturecapital #privateequity #fintech #capitalmarkets

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I've long been an advocate of getting more people to invest in startups, but aware that uneducated investors are not good for the ecosystem. 🤔 That's why I love the current efforts to educate and activate a new population of investors! In particular, I'm a huge fan of Hustle Fund 's Angel Squad 😍 , that are committed to developing an ecosystem of informed investors and evangelizing angel investing! 💸 Early stage investing can be a true win/win when done right and should be available and understandable to more folks! https://lnkd.in/gXsbsN_i #angelinvesting #venturecapital #startups #founders #TheFoundersForge

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It was a real honor to interview Brad Burnham co-founder of Union Square Ventures and partner Placeholder on the history of hype cycles in technology and the value they bring to capital and market formation. Brad has had tremendous success across decades investing at the frontier - when it was the frontier/ before it was obvious. Crypto is still the underdog and his views on the opportunity and its nuances are prescient. Specifically it is both a technical and financial innovation which can lead to excess volatility and a unique muscle as it relates to being a venture manager. But the returns are real. And the innovation is real despite some of the the common narratives. No one debates the breakthrough applications in AI at M13 we have been very active. It is also very clear that incumbents have massive data and distribution advantages which can make it challenging to find the right pockets to invest. AI is on its own hype cycle and as always the best teams (typically with contrarian takes) win. Very exciting times to be a venture investor.

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Great analysis of the acquisition of Teampay by Serra Ventures Portco Paystand and how together they will transform the B2B payments system. https://lnkd.in/gqRCESE9

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118 VCs (one hundred eighteen!) are gathering in San Diego next week - to meet with 30 SD startups. But it's so MUCH bigger than just those 30 co's. It brings VCs back - when they see quality companies. It helps those who are next-in-line and adjacent. It enables us to send deal flow all year 'round. It attracts talent and other companies. It inspires entrepreneurship. Connect is working for SD. Together, we're building the best damn innovation ecosystem on the planet. Year over year. Five.Ten.Thirty.

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One of the areas we've been focused on is the reinvention of supply chains, particularly with vertical operating systems, b2b marketplaces (often together) and embedded fintech. A whole set of catalysts are poised to propel the space forward, notably geopolitics, reshoring/friendshoring, artificial intelligence (making the consumption of vast amounts of data easier) and of course embedded fintech - all on the backdrop of digitization. In that vein, sharing this thoughtful piece Bessemer Venture Partners, and highlighting a few trends we have been tracking globally: - Empowering B2B Marketplaces and Industry OS: As an investor in cutting-edge B2B marketplaces and industry-specific operating systems, I see immense potential here. These platforms centralize and streamline data and transaction management, boosting operational efficiency and strategic insights. - Revamping Financial Transactions: The financial backbone of supply chains is plagued by delays and lack of transparency, primarily due to outdated payment methods. Fintech solutions are introducing faster, more transparent payment processes that build trust and efficiency across the network. - AI-Driven Data Management: AI technologies are tackling the perennial issue of unstructured data within supply chains. By automating the extraction and normalization of data from invoices, bills, and more, AI enhances data accuracy and accessibility, leading to more robust decision-making. https://lnkd.in/eAHJgb3r

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