Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS)

📢 The forecasts from the VIEWS Prediction Challenge 2023/2024 are live! 📢 📋 The challenge: Seeking to enhance the potential of harnessing early warning for early action, we invited teams across the world to develop models that could forecast fatalities as a probability distribution over the outcome (number of fatalities from state-based conflict per the UCDP definitions) and thus help inform end users not only of what the most likely outcome would be at a given time and place, but also alert them to any low but alarming risks that may lie ahead. ✨ Launch of the VIEWS Prediction Challenge data dashboard: We are now thrilled to present the true forecasts for July 2024-June 2025 (accompanied by a test set for 2018-2023) from no less than 13 teams and 23 models, all ready to be explored on the brand new VIEWS Prediction Challenge dashboard! 💡 New resources: Explore the forecasts on the new dashboard, read the joint introduction paper, and delve deeper into each of the submitted models through the working papers from the participating teams. All available at https://lnkd.in/dCErfr6m. #dataforpeace #dataforgood #conflictforecasts #challenge

#CRAFdEcosystem: Partnerships lie at the heart of CRAF'd mission to build a stronger global risk data ecosystem. Our partnership with PRIO and Uppsala University on the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) project is making a significant impact. By providing conflict prediction and humanitarian impact warnings up to 3 years in advance, we will empower our ecosystem partners to make informed decisions earlier, faster, and more targeted. Thank you for your partnership; Henrik Urdal, Director Peace Research Institute Oslo PRIO Håvard Hegre, Director of the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) Paola Vesco, Senior Researcher and Deputy Director of the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) Kersten Jauer, Deputy Director, Strategic Planning & Monitoring (Executive Office of the Secretary-General, United Nations #DataforGood #DataforAction #DatawithPurpose #DataforPartnership

Are you interested in ML applications for armed conflict forecasting? The VIEWS – the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System project is seeking a ML developer based at PRIO. Apply by May 5!

🚨 Come work with us! 🚨 We are hiring 1-2 Junior #MachineLearning Developer(s) to be based at PRIO! 📅 Apply by 5 May Find out more here ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/d-P8KhH7

How do we generate our predictions of armed conflict? In the latest Documentation Paper, we cover: ➡️ Input data and themes ➡️ #MachineLearning algorithms ➡️ Combining our sub-models into our main ensemble model Read more here ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/dKWAhX8k

#NewData Exciting News for conflict researchers and data scientists! Discover where the next three years will take us in global conflict dynamics. CRAF’d partner PRIO's VIEWS – the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System latest forecasts are now available, offering insights pinpointing potential hotspots of conflict with both country-month and PRIO-GRID-month datasets. Dive and uncover the regions at the highest risk. #DataforAction #DataforGood #DataforPartnership #DatawithPurpose #DataScience #ConflictResearch

📢 Universität Konstanz, Germany, is looking for a Postdoctoral Researcher on armed conflict and climate change impacts to (amongst others) work with us on the multidisciplinary conflict impacts project 'Societies at Risk'. Come join us! 🗓 Deadline 4 April.

Join us this week for a webinar on the results from our European Research Council (ERC) Proof-of-Concept project! This webinar will present the latest updates from the Violence & Impacts Early Warning System (VIEWS), with a particular focus on how our conflict prediction system can be leveraged to support policy-makers and practitioners in their work across the triple nexus of peace, development, and humanitarian assistance. 📅 This Thursday, 22 February, 15.00-16.00 CET Highlights include: 🚀 Launch of updated data dashboard 🛠️ New resources for utilizing our forecasts in daily operations 🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/dUXQ3fMg

🚀 The VIEWS team recently convened in Uppsala for an internal workshop from November 30 to December 1. Here’s a brief rundown of the key events! 📝 On day 1, operational teams engaged in break-out sessions, focusing on brainstorming, planning, and ongoing/future projects. A joint session with colleagues from the Department of Peace and Conflict, Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and the Peace Science Infrastructure (PSI) explored the intersection of AI and peace during an “AI for Peace” discussion. 📣 The second day featured presentations centered around the operational aspects of VIEWS. Topics included model developments related to forecasts, addressing issues like monthly to annual prediction outcomes, measurement uncertainty, data mining conflict events from newspaper articles, and handling missing data. Additional presentations covered specific projects such as VIEWS-People in Need, Fatalities003, and Conflict and Child Development. Our academic guest, Annika Isfeldt, also shared insights into her PhD project on Algorithmic Aid. 💫 We thank our organisers and funders for helping to host our workshop (European Research Council (ERC) for ANTICIPATE, Riksbankens Jubileumsfond and Uppsala University for Societies at Risk)! Håvard Hegre Paola Vesco Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan David Randahl Jonathan Hall Chandler Williams Sara Kallis Sofia Nordenving Garrett Benz Alexa Timlick Joakim Kreutz Annika Isfeldt

Join us tomorrow at 10:00 for the in-person panel "AI on Conflict and Early Warning" with: • Håvard Hegre, PRIO Research Professor, moderator • Simon Polichinel von der Maase, PRIO Senior Researcher • Haakon Gjerløw, PRIO Senior Researcher • Mihai Croicu, Doctoral Researcher • Sonja Häffner, Research Associate, Center for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich Location: PRIO, Hausmanns gate 3, Oslo Register here: https://lnkd.in/dGDDTAjh