The Irish Times view on Friday’s elections: a true test of the public mood

With less than three days of campaigning left until voting begins in the European and local elections, a high degree of uncertainty remains over the outcome. Reports from the canvass indicate a mixed response on the doorsteps, with many voters disengaged from the process. That could imply a low turnout, or a shift in support over the final week, or both.

Although they are held simultaneously, the two elections are very different in character. The huge European constituencies offer opportunities for candidates who bring prior name recognition to the fray, whether from national politics or some other walk of public life. Local elections, by contrast, favour the personal connection or a pressing local issue.

For the political parties, the results will offer, for the first time in four and a half years, a true test of their standing with the electorate. Local elections are traditionally a proving ground and launchpad for the ensuing general election, but this can be misleading. The last locals in 2019 delivered a dismal result for Sinn Féin which offered no hint of the party’s subsequent surge.

This time around Sinn Féin is again on the back foot following a precipitous slide in opinion polls. Coming from a low base, the party can still expect to make gains on its 2019 tally, although not on the scale it might have hoped for until recently.

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For the Government parties, their performance will influence thinking about the timing of the general election. Despite the protestations of their respective leaders, good results for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil would surely make a pre-Christmas election more likely.

All three big parties remain well positioned to take at least one seat apiece in each European constituency, but the unprecedented number of candidates, and the tight margins between them, suggest transfers will be decisive and counting will continue well into next week.

These are the first elections in which immigration has figured as an issue, and the results will provide a test of whether that has had an impact on the electorate. A number of small far-right parties look unlikely to compete at European level but it remains to be seen whether the volume of their xenophobic rhetoric is matched by any local support. Regardless, the campaign has seen a perceptible hardening on immigration policy from most of the major parties.

Although these elections are sometimes dismissively described as “second order”, local government remains an integral part of Irish democracy, while European legislation increasingly determines the future direction of the country. With predictions of a rightward, climate-sceptical shift in the next parliament, Irish voters should consider their choices carefully and make sure to exercise their democratic franchise.