Shots Fired at Andrew Wiggins - Projected to be James Posey

AirNik

AirNik

Super Star
Dec 9, 2000
104,910
9,238
Your Dreams
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/andrew-wiggins-lebron-james/

In fact, Wiggins has been one of the worst players in basketball this season — period. Among players logging as many minutes as he has, nobody has a lower Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM) or Box Plus/Minus (BPM) or fewer Win Shares per 48 minutes. And only Channing Frye has a lower Player Efficiency Rating. ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus is slightly kinder to Wiggins, but not by much.
Click to expand...


Based on the relationship between age-equivalent rookie SPM and peak WAR for that group, Wiggins looks to be on track for about 6 WAR in the best season of his career. That’d be a major disappointment if the comparison point is James (who tallied nearly 26 WAR in his best year), but then again, it’s better than you might expect based on Wiggins’s horrid statistical production as an NBA rookie thus far.
Click to expand...








2a64f2f.gif
 
Last edited:
AirNik

AirNik

Super Star
Dec 9, 2000
104,910
9,238
Your Dreams
I'm wondering when the Wiggstans will acknowledge how bad he has been. These guys were still trying to take shots at Jabari Parker a week ago.
 
MVP_21Cubs

MVP_21Cubs

Star
Jul 23, 2004
20,433
1,619
AirNik said:
TheWolfgang said:
SWEET THREAD AIRNIK, LIKE USUAL.
Click to expand...


Sweet reading, bro

MVP_21Cubs said:
Anything Wiggins has done in the past 4 weeks is irrelevant. He's playing against NBA players while playing on a D-League team.
Click to expand...

You show a good grasp of the fundamentals discussed in the piece
Click to expand...

I hadn't even read it or looked at it. Most of those stats while individually relate to the player are directly correlated by team. Wiggins isn't going to have a good win share since the team he is on is the worst team in basketball in it's present state. He's getting far more defensive attention than any 19 year old should since him and Shabazz are literally the only players worth paying attention to on the Wolves. Not to mention his own problems where he plays into his weaknesses and doesn't always play to his strengths.

Let's see how the 2nd half of the season goes for him without factoring in pre-January games. If he continues to look that bad with Pek, Martin, and Rubio all back playing and not being forced to play with LaVine, Dieng, and Williams.

We all know you aren't watching any Wolves games. You're just checking his shooting %'s and seeing they are piss poor and wanting to brag that you hitched your alliance to Parker who didn't have to do half the shit Wiggins is having to do currently.
 
Last edited:
MVP_21Cubs

MVP_21Cubs

Star
Jul 23, 2004
20,433
1,619
I don't care the least bit about it. I care even less about what that article pretends to know based off 19 year old players playing over 30 minutes a game (when there are so little of those over the course of the history of the NBA) and projecting what he will become off a 25 game stretch where he is playing alongside players who are bench players.

Spoiler alert: Parker wouldn't have the Wolves at anymore wins than where they are currently and his efficiency would have been significantly worse.
 
Last edited:
B

badsharulez

No Longer a Noob
Nov 13, 2011
5,095
740
WAIT NO NO NO JUST WAIT AND WATCH HE'S THE NEXT LEBRON. WAIT NO HE'S BETTER THAN LEBRON. ACTUALLY FORGET IT HE'S BETTER THAN JORDAN. SHUT THE LEAGUE DOWN AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


lol this guy is the best Gerald green. A lot of hype and some flashy dunks. That's all
 
dab7291993

dab7291993

Super Star
Nov 19, 2006
63,364
10,449
Are you telling me you trust this stat, age adjusting (seriously, wtf is age adjusting and how does it help here? What fucking concrete number accurately "age adjusts"?) and all, to accurately project how much Wiggins will progress? As far as what his best season will be WAR wise(What would this number have been for Paul Geroge 1/3rd the way through his rookie year?)? Are you actually telling us that this isn't some guy having fun with bball reference and the analysis in this article isn't absolutely void of any context surrounding Wiggins and the Wolves?

This is literally some baseball shit. shame on you
 
dab7291993

dab7291993

Super Star
Nov 19, 2006
63,364
10,449
AirNik said:
What you apparently don't get is that these are projections that correct for his age

He is sucking, period
Click to expand...
100% genuine curiosity here. What makes you so confident in this right here. How is his progression just simulated? Wouldn't it be strictly based off of how he has played already, since there is simply no way that there is any type of stat, or simulation that can accurately project player development? Natural talent, athleticism, and mesurables; all of these things are facts, player development is the most uncertain thing. Way too many factors are involved in it. Wiggins could break his leg tomorrow and fulfill the mighty 358 sports' prophecy, or he could completely break loose after the all star break playing with Rubio and Pekovic, who the fuck knows.

This article is a cry for page views, which I understand. I don't really understand why you're showing it to us though.
 
Last edited:
Anghellic11

Anghellic11

Super Star
Jun 22, 2005
76,010
23,634
AirNik said:
I'm wondering when the Wiggstans will acknowledge how bad he has been. These guys were still trying to take shots at Jabari Parker a week ago.
Click to expand...
Parker sucks too so stfu. Both have been disappointing. Wiggins never looked that great to begin with, did you forget how everybody realized how mediocre he was at College? lol at acting like this is some original thought.
 
Anghellic11

Anghellic11

Super Star
Jun 22, 2005
76,010
23,634
dab7291993 said:
AirNik said:
What you apparently don't get is that these are projections that correct for his age

He is sucking, period
Click to expand...
100% genuine curiosity here. What makes you so confident in this right here. How is his progression just simulated? Wouldn't it be strictly based off of how he has played already, since there is simply no way that there is any type of stat, or simulation that can accurately project player development? Natural talent, athleticism, and mesurables; all of these things are facts, player development is the most uncertain thing. Way too many factors are involved in it. Wiggins could break his leg tomorrow and fulfill the mighty 358 sports' prophecy, or he could completely break loose after the all star break playing with Rubio and Pekovic, who the fuck knows.

This article is a cry for page views, which I understand. I don't really understand why you're showing it to us though.
Click to expand...
"correct for his age"

The guy is a massive Lance Stephenson fan who went from almost being out of the league to being an free agent attraction for a lot of teams and all of a sudden you can simulate somebody's future.


How to simulate Wiggins future stats:
> Load up NBA 2k15
> Start MyLeague
> Simulate 10 seasons as TWolves GM
> Record progression
 
dab7291993

dab7291993

Super Star
Nov 19, 2006
63,364
10,449
There's nothing wrong with advanced stats, while I don't know everything about them, the goal should be to understand every stat's flaws and strengths and use that stat accordingly.
 
Anghellic11

Anghellic11

Super Star
Jun 22, 2005
76,010
23,634
I just adjusted Okafor's stats for age.

horreeee shieeet.


That's weird I just adjusted Lance Stephenson's stats for age and it came back with N/A guess he'll be out of the league by then
 
Last edited:
P

platchat

Hold on, fellas.
Jul 29, 2008
39,399
19,484
Toronto, Ontario
OP acting like we all thought Wiggins was going to be better than Parker right off the bat.

We all said Parker was more NBA ready than Wiggins, and like someone said before they have both been pretty bad. Wiggins is on a very young team that has fought through injuries and are trying to find themselves after losing their best player. Give him time.
 
AirNik

AirNik

Super Star
Dec 9, 2000
104,910
9,238
Your Dreams
Since we can't read:

  • Wiggins has been one of, if not the, worst player in the NBA this season
  • Historically, young players who perform this poorly at any point in their careers--ROOKIE YEAR INCLUDED--end up being mediocre NBA players at best.
  • Using a model based on historic trends in year-to-year improvement for past players, the author attempts to project what future Wiggins will look like based on current Wiggins' performance. It isn't very good.
  • The player who most resembles the projected Wiggins in James Posey. Another comparable is Glen Rice.
  • There are obviously exceptions to every rule, but history doesn't lie very often.

Lern2Red
 
Last edited:
-D3-

-D3-

Perfected on Puritan Avenue
Apr 13, 2012
7,235
3,776
Do SPM and BPM account for a players team mates like RAPM does?
 
dab7291993

dab7291993

Super Star
Nov 19, 2006
63,364
10,449
Could we at least see what 19 year old Wiggins looks like, not as the 1st option? Or simply see him play an extended period with a point guard that can set him up?

This isn't just some bad rookie year, the teams 2 best players are hurt, and Kevin Martin is hurt too. Why can't that context be at least involved in this discussion?

This sample is tainted by an unfit role.
 
AirNik

AirNik

Super Star
Dec 9, 2000
104,910
9,238
Your Dreams
Plenty of young players go to shit teams--in fact, THEY ALL DO. Check the headline of the article, for example.

What's funny to me is that you'll go searching for cases where the young player made his shit teammates into less shit teammates. Apparently Wiggins isn't doing that at all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
 
Last edited:
dab7291993

dab7291993

Super Star
Nov 19, 2006
63,364
10,449
What is it that Wiggins could do to make these players better?

Is he gonna make Thad Young into someone that shouldn't be a bench player? Is Zach Lavine gonna become a real point guard due to something Wiggins did? Is Wiggins supposed to be main initiator for the offense? Please tell me what it is he could be doing but isnt? Is he magically supposed to be creating for others when he struggles to do so himself? Be their defensive anchor? How many players who lead a team in minutes that gets outscored by 10 a night post a positive BPM? Notice how Zach Lavine and Budinger are posting a a -5, maybe it's because this team is awful, maybe it's because Wiggins isn't doing enough.

Maybe the Wolves should give up on Wiggins while they're ahead and build around ShabbyMad.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom