Could We See More Stimulus Payments If Trump Wins?
Written by
Brooke Barley
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Amber Barkley
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There is so much social media chatter about what will happen after the election in November that it can be hard to distill what is factual and what isn’t. There has been some speculation that if former President Trump wins re-election against President Biden, he will approve more stimulus payments. But is that actually true?
While Trump was in office, Americans saw two rounds of stimulus payments to provide relief during the COVID-19 pandemic. Those who qualified saw a first check for $1,200 in March 2020 and a second for $600 in December 2020. Recently, TikTok users have started saying more checks are coming if he wins re-election.
GOBankingRates reached out to political experts to find out if there is any supporting evidence for those social media users’ claims and what we can expect regarding the future of stimulus payments under a second Trump term.
The Possibility of Targeted Relief
The truth about the TikTok videos claiming more stimulus payments are on the way is that they’re unfounded.
“That rumor started after a couple March 7 and 8 TikTok videos, [which] were viewed a few millions times each, making that rumor hard to kill even if the Trump campaign tried, which they have not,” said Michael Montgomery, an intermittent lecturer at University of Michigan-Dearborn.
Though Trump has made no clear promises that he will grant more stimulus payments if he’s elected, Chuck Warren, one of the hosts of the Breaking Battlegrounds Politics Podcast, said there could be payments made to help certain demographics.
“Instead of generalized stimulus payment plans, the government can concentrate its efforts on particular sectors or populations most affected,” he said. “This might involve support targeting small businesses or specific industries or individuals falling within certain income brackets.”
Payments for Disaster Relief
The stimulus payments of 2020 came because of a global pandemic. Dr. Jim Ronan, a political science professor at Villanova University, said that we could see more stimulus payments under a second Trump presidency if we were to have another disaster of those proportions.
“Supporting stimulus payments would likely hurt Trump with conservative voters, especially those whose support is predicated mainly on his economic platform,” Ronan said. “The one caveat would be an unforeseen event. For example, the 2008 stimulus was in response to the worsening credit situation, and 2020 was due to COVID. Thus, it would likely take a considerable event for a prospective Trump Administration to support a stimulus package.”
Isabella Brown, a politician and campaign manager at Qualify Candidates, agreed, saying severe economic downturn could be a reason Trump would oversee more payments. “If there is a recession or any other disaster from which the economy is struggling to recover, there may be greater pressure for it to happen.”
Payments Dependent on Who Controls Congress
Brown said another factor deciding if more stimulus payments go out is who controls Congress.
“Trump’s economic policies may gain more support if Republicans hold on or take over both houses of Congress, thus leading to additional stimulus payments,” she explained. “But if one or both chambers are controlled by Democrats, talks and deals are inevitable that could affect the size, as well as the frequency, of any such transfers.”
Pivot From Stimulus Payments to Fiscal Conservative Measures
Warren said that Trump might not approve any more stimulus payments, but he could approve other measures that could benefit certain populations. “We may see fewer or no direct stimulus payments at all; But instead, there would be more emphasis on tax cuts, deregulation and other steps meant to boost long-term economic growth.”
Warren said this is especially possible if inflation increases or the country shows more signs of economic distress.
Brown agreed, but said there could be a mix of tax cuts and stimulus checks. “In history, tax reductions have been among his priorities for boosting growth. He might still endorse measures that increase expenditure by consumers and the level of business activity in case he gets re-elected, including direct deposits toward encouraging an impending recession or economic slump.”
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In the end, Brown said it’s hard to tell exactly where Trump will land when it comes to payments, but it isn’t fully out of the question. “There exists a plausible chance that a Trump administration would favor extra stimulus payments in case it deems [them] necessary according to its surrounding economies. However, this decision will be made based on different politics and economics at that time.”
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