The challenge for India is to keep decarbonising even as it keeps developing

 
In the Cabinet formed by the new government of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in early June, continuity prevailed in the top portfolios. Other crucial portfolios that were tweaked received less attention. In this special issue focussed on climate, let’s examine the relevance of a few of those modifications at a time when India may be at the cusp of the world’s most complex energy transition.

Manohar Khattar getting the Ministry of Power (and Housing and Urban Affairs) made the headlines for the former Haryana chief minister’s (CM) induction along with six other CMs. Prahlad Joshi took charge of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), and G Kishan Reddy bagged the coal portfolio.

It’s a reshuffle with significance. In the previous regime, RK Singh, who lost from Bihar’s Arrah constituency, had been entrusted with both power and MNRE. Now that’s been divvied up between Khattar and Joshi. More, Joshi had charge of coal and mines (along with parliamentary affairs) in Modi 2.0. That’s now gone to Reddy, who earlier headed the ministries of tourism, culture and development of the north-eastern region.

Having separate ministries for (thermal) power and MNRE can be construed as a need for sharper focus on each of these sectors that will call for careful calibration in India’s energy transition. Perhaps Shripad Yesso Naik, the Minister of State in charge of both power and MNRE, will play the role of a vital bridge between the two ministries.

India is the fifth largest economy in the world, growing faster than the developed world. The industrialisation that comes with that growth also makes it the world’s third largest greenhouse gas emitter—after China and the United States, and ahead of the European Union—accounting for 7 percent of global emissions.

The growth imperative, which involves going big on manufacturing everything from semiconductors to defence equipment, means that India’s energy demand is going through the (non-solar) roof. As of fiscal 2022, 70 percent of India’s power needs were met through coal, of which India is the second largest producer and consumer. Expecting demand to peak between 2030 and 2035, the government has taken the call to ramp up coal production; it expects demand to peak between 2030 and 2035.

Meanwhile, India’s non-fossil fuel basket—solar, wind, hydro, bio-power—is also being ramped up to hit the target of it accounting for half of India’s cumulative capacity by 2030. That would be just an early milestone on the road to 2070—by when India, as it declared in 2021 in Glasgow in Scotland at COP26, plans to reach net-zero emissions.

India’s energy transition would make for a fascinating comparative debate, if it wasn’t for the climatic urgency of the challenge. Every Indian summer is getting hotter, and flashfloods and landslides in the hill states are a regular occurrence. The big question then: How does India develop—like no other country is attempting to—and decarbonise at the same time?

Divya Shekhar attempts to find answers in the climate edition of Forbes India. Her verdict: India will need power from coal at least till 2050, if not beyond. Yet, the big picture isn’t lost on India’s power producers; in fiscal 2024, India’s coal-fired power capacity fell below 50 percent for the first time, with renewables accounting for 71 percent of total capacity addition. That’s one small but vital step in the net-zero sojourn. For more on the strategies to calibrate this long journey, Divya’s ‘Great Power, Great Responsibility’ is a must read.