Topline
The betting markets believe President Joe Biden’s poor performance in last week’s presidential debate has not only severely dented his chances of beating former President Donald Trump in November’s elections, but also raised the possibility of him being replaced on the ballot by his running mate and Vice President Kamala Harris.
The betting markets predict Vice President Kamala Harris is best poise to replace President Joe ... [+]
Key Facts
According to the prediction market platform Polymarket, Biden’s becoming the Democratic nominee for November’s election tanked from a fairly assured 90% on Thursday morning to 49% as of early Wednesday.
After some fluctuations over the weekend, a steep decline from 78% to 49% occurred on Tuesday itself, as the former president faced some pushback from within the Democratic party.
As Biden’s chances have fallen, the betting market is putting its money on Harris, whose odds have risen from 1% before the debate to 35% early Wednesday, according to Polymarket.
Another prediction platform taking bets on the election, PredictIt, has given Biden even worse odds of 40 cents per share (equating to a 40% chance), putting him on par with Harris—after the president was steadily above 84 cents per share last week before the debate.
After being behind California Gov. Gavin Newsom following the debate, the vice president surged ahead of all other potential Democratic nominees on PredictIt’s market—going from 14 cents a share on Monday to 40 cents on Wednesday.
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Surprising Fact
While the betting market on PredictIt suggests Biden fell behind Trump in the presidential race in mid-May, the president’s shaky debate performance appears to have convinced bookmakers he has a worse chance than Harris of winning the November election. Wednesday morning’s odds for the question “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” show Trump leading with a 58% chance, followed by the vice president at 21% and Biden at 19%.
Big Number
53%. That is the betting market’s prediction on the chances of Biden dropping out of the presidential race before the Democratic convention, according to Polymarket.
Tangent
While Harris is the bookmaker’s favorite to replace Biden if he drops out, a Reuters-Ipsos poll suggests voters believe a different Democratic candidate has the best chance of beating Trump in November. In a survey conducted early this week, former First Lady Michelle Obama emerged as the only candidate comfortably ahead of Trump in a direct match. The former first lady, however, has repeatedly said she has no interest in running for president. While Biden and Trump are at an even 40% each in a head-to-head, Obama polled 11 points ahead of Trump at 50% to 39%. In the same poll nearly a third of all Democrat voters (32%) said Biden should drop out of the race after his debate performance.
Further Reading
Can Democrats Replace Biden? Here’s What Would Happen If Biden Leaves 2024 Race. (Forbes)
Here’s Who Has Called On Joe Biden To Drop Out—From Ex-Rep. Tim Ryan, Pundits And A Former Staffer (Forbes)
