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Shifts for 2020:
Mobile Command Center
With a new mobile-only generation on the rise and the Internet of Things preparing for liftoff, mobile's role as the force at the center of our digital universe is only growing stronger. Fresh from Facebook IQ, explore five mobile trends surfacing today that will shape your marketing tomorrow.
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CONTENTS
By 2020, more than half the world will be connected to the internet.1 An estimated 3B more people—the majority living in emerging markets—will have gained access to a smartphone.2 And although estimates around the number of smart and connected devices in 2020 range from 20B3 to well over 30B,4 things are looking up for the Internet of Things.
Whether someone is looking for a new job in Nairobi or lowering their mood lighting at home in New York, expect to find mobile increasingly bridging people’s physical and digital universes, serving as our collective command center.
In this latest installment of Facebook IQ’s “Shifts for 2020” series, take a global look at our evolving relationship with mobile connectivity.
1. Solely mobile
A new global generation is on the rise. Only this generation is defined not by age (though many are Millennials and Gen Zers), but by how they connect. Meet the “solely mobile”—people whose only portal to the internet rests right in the palm of their hand. Now is the moment to get well acquainted with these solely mobile citizens—and the emerging markets they live in. These are the people who will drive global growth and increasingly shape our world through 2020 and beyond.5
Across 14 markets, more than 1 in 4 internet users measured are already mobile only6
India
Indonesia
Mexico
Brazil
Facebook data underscores the importance of mobile, with 96% of people in Southeast Asia and 97% in Sub-Saharan Africa accessing the platform on mobile each month.7
But device usage is just a starting point for understanding the connectivity challenges and diverse expectations of people in emerging markets.
India will represent 35% of the next billion mobile connections across the world,8 and people will expect the small screen to deliver in full and in language. In fact, nearly 1 in 2 Indian internet users primarily consumes content in a local language (and India has over 22 widely spoken languages).9
Using machine-learning natural language processing, which detects the strength of users’ associations between words, we analyzed conversations on Facebook. We discovered that Indians on Facebook essentially see their phones as internet machines that should be capable of doing many of the same things as a computer—enabling them to take a video break as well as take care of business. And people expect mobile, in particular, to deliver when it comes to online shopping, watching videos and messaging.
INDIANS’ ASSOCIATIONS WITH THEIR DEVICES10
Gaming
Online shopping
Watching videos
Managing business
Banking
Online shopping
Watching videos
Messaging
Banking
Managing business
Though they face a range of challenges in connecting to the internet, people in Sub-Saharan Africa will do what it takes to be online when it matters.11
Connectivity can be challenging and costly
Among people surveyed in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa who are connected, 86% experience spotty network coverage, 67% run out of data weekly and 31% say unreliable electricity prevents them from being as connected as they'd like.
Language is a barrier to connectivity
Among people surveyed in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa who are unconnected, less than half (44%) think that content online is in a language they can understand.
But those who are connected are committed
Among people surveyed in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa who are connected, 77% access the internet daily. But to be able to connect when it counts most, 46% keep their data switched off by default, 34% keep their phone off until it's needed and 38% make use of multiple SIM cards.11
PEOPLE ARE PLANNING TO STRENGTHEN THEIR CONNECTION
And globally, many say they plan to buy or upgrade their phone in the next 18 months12
India
Brazil
Nigeria
Indonesia
2. Crucial connectivity
Among connected people surveyed across 17 markets, 91% own a smartphone, and people rank their smartphone as the #1 most important internet device.13 In emerging and mature mobile markets alike, people prize and prioritize their mobile internet access. As a global community, we are increasingly connected by our desire to be... connected. Collectively, we check our phones an average of 80 times throughout the day.14
United in mobility
Sub-Saharan Africa
Among people surveyed who are connected in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa11
1 in 5 would give up public transportation to maintain their connectivity.
1 in 4 would give up eating out to maintain their connectivity.
1 in 3 even says they consider the internet an extension of themselves.
North America
Among people surveyed who are connected in the US15
More than 1 in 2 would give up eating out for a year to keep their mobile phone.
Nearly 1 in 2 would give up a day off per week to keep their mobile phone.
Nearly 1 in 2 would put off going on vacation to keep their mobile phone.
3. Application consolidation
There’s probably an app for that—but the odds that people are using it regularly seem slim, given our global tendency to download, delete or neglect our apps. In the face of information overload, people continue to crave simplicity. And as the apps people use most often continue to expand their capabilities, it seems probable that a small set of core apps could become people’s one-stop shops (if they haven’t already).
In a time- and data-constrained world, aggregation and consolidation will look more attractive than ever. And as messaging apps continue to prove they are capable of driving business and pleasure, perhaps they will be an antidote to app overload.
Globally, people have an average of 33 apps on their phone. But just three apps account for over 80% of people’s app usage.1
At capacity
Among Indian smartphone users surveyed, 1 in 3 runs out of memory every day, and 83% delete apps to free up that space.16
Not a good look
Among US Millennials surveyed, more than 1 in 5 has deleted an app because they didn’t like the way it looked on their home screen—possible proof that people see their home screen as a reflection of their identity.17
Just a Holiday fling
Among people surveyed in the US, 26% said they planned to temporarily download (and then delete) a retail aggregator app18 and 36% a travel aggregator app19 for the Holiday season.
Nearly6 in 10sometimes hesitate to download new apps because they already have too many.
Nearly1 in 2go so far as to routinely delete apps from their phone.
And nearly1 in 2wish they could combine all their apps into one.
4. Everything connected
Initial interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) may have largely been based on novelty. But as more and more smart objects become smart and connected enough to be both helpful and simple (e.g., controllable from a single mobile app), people’s interest will likely continue to accelerate.
Change starts at home
In the US, 1 in 5 internet households already has at least one IoT device (with smart speakers being the most common).21 And with conversation on Facebook around “home automation” rising markedly in a year, people's interest in the IoT seems to be growing.22
As for the global outlook, a nine-market Ofcom report reveals that while Americans are more likely to own connected devices overall, people's adoption patterns also point to some interesting cultural nuances:
ONE WORLD, CONNECTED DIFFERENTLY
Compared to the average among people surveyed23
Americans are1.67Xmore likely to have a connected car.
Italians are1.44Xmore likely to have a smart appliance.
Spaniards are1.30Xmore likely to have a smart sound system.
Swedes are1.39Xmore likely to have a smart thermostat or lighting.
As we look to future usage, people seem increasingly open to embracing the IoT. For instance, 39% of people globally express interest in self-driving cars13, around 1 in 5 Britons are interested in smart lighting, thermostats or security systems24 and 3 in 4 people surveyed in Latin America see safety as a key benefit of having a smart home.25
But cultural differences aside, to create an IoT experience that will truly simplify people’s lives, businesses will have to partner with each other in unprecedented ways. Success will be about providing the level of seamlessness that allows people to automate the mundane and get back the most precious resource of all—time.
As our cars become smart enough to drive themselves, smart speakers start to serve as personal assistants and people embrace the possibility of taking a call from their watch, we will all be faced with interesting questions around what "mobile" even means. Will we see connected cars as the ultimate mobile devices? Will smart homes be primary mobile platforms? Just as mobile will make the internet more inclusive, the definition of “mobile” itself will grow more inclusive, too.
5. Building on mobile
When life throws people challenges, people in emerging markets tend to respond with creativity (often out of necessity). People embody creative problem-solving so well that we even find they have words for it, such as jugaad in Hindi (a creative, innovative fix using meager resources) and kanju in Yoruba (representing “the specific creativity born from African difficulty”).26 Emerging markets represent a world where people must regularly improvise novel solutions for everyday challenges. And these solutions—often built on the back of mobile—have allowed emerging markets to leapfrog past their more developed counterparts in several significant ways.
Leapfrogging past landlines, desktops and more
In India, we’ve seen leapfrog innovation in the areas of mobile, identity (e.g., digital identities that enable everything from SIM card activation to opening bank accounts on mobile), bandwidth and payments.27 We’ve seen this innovation and creativity in “the Silicon Savannah”—from Kenya’s M-Pesa (mobile money transfers for the unbanked) to Uganda’s Esoko (mobile tools for farmers). And having invented “the world’s most successful money transfer service,”28 Kenyans are now 1.57x more likely than the global average of people surveyed to use mobile payments.29
We also see this leapfrog creativity in the ways people in emerging markets use messaging apps to drive commerce. While globally, more than 1 in 2 people who message a business say they are more likely to shop with a business they can message, people in emerging markets—including India, Indonesia, Mexico and Thailand—overindex by at least 1.25x on this sentiment.30
Building businesses on mobile
Whether it's a fashion retailer using Messenger to grow their business or enterprising chef who funds a new catering endeavor through a micro-loan app, mobile is helping people make money.
Among people surveyed who are connected in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa—where so many are mobile-only—fully 40% say they’ve been able to generate additional income from being online.11
BUILDING BETTER FUTURES ON MOBILE
Among people surveyed in Nigeria
92%agree that their mobile phone gives them access to services, information and/or opportunities that were previously out of reach.31
73%agree that society will become more fair and equal as more people connect to the internet through mobile phones.31
“
We always want our children’s futures to be better and our grandchildren’s to be better than our children’s. And I know—that with the internet, they will have many more opportunities in life.
Washington
35, Kenya
Marketer shifts
The future comes to different places at different times. And in our increasingly open and connected global community, the world will be shaped by movement—of people, ideas, technology and products across borders. Innovation can come from anywhere, flourish without borders and inspire further innovation elsewhere.
Build for everyone:
As you discover cross-border growth opportunities and look to expand into emerging markets, don’t let screen size or network speed dictate the quality of people’s interaction with you. For example, consider light mobile sites rather than heavy mobile apps, find creative ways to be visually immersive but data-light and explore how “offline experiences” can help you stay close even when people don’t have WiFi.
Localize for impact:
Because emerging markets also represent a diverse range of cultures, states of connectivity and languages, localization will be key. Drive awareness and expand your relevance at the regional level: Leverage our insights to develop a deep understanding of your new audiences, look for local partnerships and be sure to create localized, in-language content.
Think “platforms,” not just “products”:
In the era of interconnected intelligent objects, it will be important to consider products not as standalone entities but as parts of a larger ecosystem. Consider the connected products and platforms that people are already using and find ways to make these smart universes better, easier—and smarter.
Look to the “solely mobile” and emerging markets for inspiration:
Emerging markets are home to many of the world’s Millennials and Gen Zers and have a legacy of leapfrogging the rest of the world. Their mobile-first innovation can serve as an indicator of behaviors to come. Their approach to innovation—finding creativity beyond constraints—may be what our fast-changing world requires.
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