The VIEWS early warning system

The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) is an award-winning conflict prediction system that generates monthly forecasts for violent conflicts across the world up to three years in advance. It is iteratively improved and expanded upon by means of the active research and development activities undertaken by the VIEWS consortium.
The current version of the VIEWS system offers predictions for so-called state-based conflict, that is, inter- or intrastate conflicts over government or territory in which at least one of the warring parties are a government-affiliated actor, such as military forces, police officers, or armed wings of political parties. 
In 2024, the system will expand to offer predictions for both state-based conflict, non-state conflict (e.g. communal violence), and one-sided violence against unarmed civilians. 
The conflict forecasts are presented alongside a suite of interpretation tools that model the correlation between one or more conflict indicators and their joint effect on the predicted number of fatalities in impending conflict.  
Explore the forecasts The current model Staff Funding
Example grid level prediction map
  • Expansions in the pipeline
The ongoing research projects Societies at Risk, ANTICIPATE, and VIEWS-People in Need (VIEWS-PIN), each explore novel approaches to move from predicting conflict to also predicting the impact of armed conflict on affected societies and humanitarian outcomes. Their respective results will be incorporated into the operational VIEWS system, allowing us to offer predictions for conflict as well as conflict impact in coming years. 
  • Legacy models
The operational VIEWS model is iteratively improved and updated. To learn more about previous versions of the model, please consult the model directory. 
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