We are only about three weeks away from the release of Marvel Studios’ only 2024 film— “Deadpool & Wolverine.” As we get closer to the release date, we get a better idea about how much money the film is set to make. And three weeks out, it’s still looking like Marvel has a huge hit on its hands. However, not as big as what people expected a couple weeks ago.
According to THR, tracking on “Deadpool & Wolverine” is between $160 million and $165 million. If that holds true, we’re looking at the R-rated superhero film to grace theater owners with the biggest weekend total of 2024 so far. Not too shabby. But again, it’s a fairly steep fall from what people were saying a couple of weeks ago when they were thinking there was a shot that “D&W” could bring in more than $200 million. But let’s be real, there are plenty of reasons why that number was likely not going to happen.
Now, the big question remains—if ‘D&W’ brings in $165 million (more than the recent “Inside Out 2,” which raced to $1 billion in two weekends), can the Marvel Studios film earn the coveted $1 billion worldwide. Honestly, it’s not a guarantee. In fact, you could argue that it’s not likely.
READ MORE: ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’: Shawn Levy Says The Film Features “A Lot” Of Secret Characters
First, you have the fact that Marvel’s track record recently (outside of “Spider-Man: No Way Home”) is spotty, at best. Maybe the best comparison is “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” which opened up with $187 million (more than $20 million above the ‘D&W’ tracking) and only earned $955 million at the box office. Sure, that’s a great number, but it’s still not $1 billion. But let’s also not forget that ‘Multiverse of Madness’ is a PG-13 film and ‘Deadpool 3’ is a hard R.
It’s really that R-rating that is seemingly going to hold “Deadpool & Wolverine” back. To date, there is only ever been one R-rated film (“Joker”) to earn more than $1 billion at the box office. Previous “Deadpool” films (both beloved by fans and critics) only earned $783 million and $735 million, respectively. That means “Deadpool & Wolverine” would have to greatly outpace the first two ‘Deadpool’ films and do something that has only ever happened once before. Let’s not forget, we are in a very different box office world than when “Joker” was released.
Look, if there is an R-rated film that can break $1 billion at the box office, you would think a Marvel Studios film would be able to. Plus, this is the long-awaited team-up between two beloved characters. And yes, much like ‘Multiverse of Madness,’ there are teases about secret cameos and whatnot. There is plenty of interest in the film, but can it get to $1 billion with an R-rating? That’s the real question.