Lawrence Wong

This The New York Times piece by Keith Bradsher of their Beijing bureau does an excellent job of summarizing the Chinese government's doubling down on export oriented clean energy manufacturing expansion and the global trade tensions it is sparking. These macro trends portend the likelihood that Chinese solar manufacturing over capacity, and the resulting expanding exports at rock bottom prices, will trigger global trade actions that will disrupt the flow of Chinese solar panels to many markets. Similar actions and reactions are likely on electric cars. Government's around the world have prior experience with China's mercantalist export policies hollowing out their industries and leaving them reliant on Chinese suppliers for key materials and products. And as Mr. Xi's China becomes increasingly aggressive towards western interests, threatening its near neighbors and aligning itself with bad actors like Russia, aggressive cyber activities against the US and others and ongoing trade secrets theft, governments grow ever more wary of dependence on Chinese products. As Bradsher details: "From cars to solar panels to furniture, China is using lavish bank lending and enormous investments in robotics to cement its global leadership in manufacturing." "And Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader, is pushing the country’s banks to lend more money for the construction of even more factories... At the same time, Chinese companies are finding ways to bypass trade barriers in the West... Solar panels and their key component, solar wafers, are among China’s fastest-growing exports as measured by quantity. Wafer exports nearly doubled last year. But because solar product prices nearly halved, the total value of China’s solar exports actually edged down slightly last year. The European Union has opened an investigation that could result in limits on Chinese solar exports. The United States has been considering tighter rules on solar imports as well... Beijing’s hope is that strong overseas sales of manufactured goods, together with heavy investment in the factories to make those goods, will help offset the country’s housing debacle... China’s state-directed banks are shoveling money into manufacturing businesses. Loans at low interest rates mean that companies can afford to build factories with lots of robots and invest heavily in research and development. The net increase each year in lending to industry has been enormous. It was $83 billion in 2019. By last year, the annual increase in industrial loans had The supply of Chinese solar components and products to western markets is likely to be significantly disrupted in the coming years, heightening the importance of diversifying the solar supply chain. Buyers need to incorporate these risks into their acquisition practices. https://lnkd.in/er9SRmJw

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Thailand’s government has approved Thailand’s application to join BRICS. This could make Thailand the first SE Asia nation to join. Thailand is an innovator in the cross border payments and digital currency space. Its central bank has been a key participant in the mBridge cross border payments blockchain project together with the PBOC, central bank of the UAE, the HK monetary authority and the Bank of International Settlements. #brics #thailand #currencymultipolarity

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If China Is Our Biggest Threat, Our Bureaucrat-Led Politicians & Sycophantic Corporate Establishment Runs A Close 2nd If our experiences with COVID and the so called 'transition to renewables' have taught us anything, it is that our politicians are incapable of discerning between the truth and lies told them by their bureaucrats, and that our Mainstream Media no longer do much other than repeating their Press Releases, while the Corporate Establishment, so dependent on government revenues, are equally unquestioning. Decades ago, our Mainstream Media and representative Business Organizations would never have remained silent while governments so incompetently and corruptly spent our Nation and States into such terrifyingly deep debt with economy destroying wildly irresponsible schemes like the failed wind turbines of Europe, or mandated COVID lock downs and vaccinations. A challenging Mainstream Media and professional Business Organizations once could be relied upon to provide what we now know to be a critical forum so essential to protect us from oppressive 'Big Government'. That's gone, and progressively, many of our freedoms with it.

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#Asia 🌏 | #Wealth Migration 💸 2024 | Have a read of my latest essay, in the just released private wealth migration report of Henley & Partners - The Firm of Global Citizens®. An excerpt & 🔗 below: 🛬 Millionaires on the move — into Asia, with #Singapore 🇸🇬 helping show the way The Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2024 makes clear that when it comes to high-net-worth individual (#HNWI) movement, #AsiaPacific is not to be counted out, with 3 of the Top 10 countries with forecast net #millionaire inflows in 2024 being from the region. While the #UAE 🇦🇪 and the #USA 🇺🇸 take the top two places, Singapore — the international finance and trading hub — ranks No. 3 with a projected net gain of 3,500 high-net-worth individuals in 2024. Impressively for Singapore (total population of 5.9 million) that is just 300 millionaires fewer than the net gain by the No. 2-ranked USA (total population of 335 million). Widely regarded as the most business-friendly city on earth, Singapore consistently ranks among the top destinations for migrating millionaires. In April 2024, the Economist Intelligence: EIU named the city-state — also known as The Lion City — as the world’s best place to conduct business. Singapore is also the world’s fastest growing family office hub, aided by a tax-friendly regime (including zero capital gains tax), a comparatively safe, stable and secure environment, and clear, transparent rules. 🛫 Headwinds for ‘population billionaire’ #China 🇨🇳 reflected in departing millionaires When it comes to the Top 10 countries with the highest forecast net millionaire outflows for 2024, two giant Asian nations stand out — the ‘population billionaires’ of China and #India 🇮🇳 rank 1st and 3rd, respectively. (The #UK 🇬🇧 ranked 2nd with a new record net outflow of 9,500 millionaires projected.) China continues to see the highest net outflow of millionaires with a projected 15,200 leaving the mainland in 2024 — a new record for the country (and likely to be an undercount), but it is important to recognize that this is a very small percentage of that nation’s overall millionaire population. For reference, China — with a population of more than 1.4 billion — is 2nd on the world’s Top 15 wealthiest countries ‘W15’ list with 862,400 millionaires, including 2,352 centi-millionaires and 305 billionaires, while 1st-placed USA — with a population of 332 million — has 5.49 million high-net-worth individuals, 9,850 of whom are centi-millionaires and 788 billionaires. And what of that India figure, as well as the data for #Japan 🇯🇵, #Korea 🇰🇷, #Taiwan 🇹🇼, #Australia 🇦🇺, #NewZealand 🇳🇿 and others? Go to 👉https://lnkd.in/ebD_-4JS #America #AsiaPacific #Indopacific • #wealthmanagement #privatebanking #finance #capital #capitalflows #forcesshapingAsia #onthemove #henleyprivatewealthmigrationreport #privatewealthmigration #henleypartners #henleyandpartners #henleyglobal | Data via New World Wealth

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This podcast explores why Singapore emerged to play a leading role in Indo-Pacific business and geopolitical affairs--even hosting major international events like the Asia Tech Summit and the Shangri-La Dialogue. It talks about how Singapore came to be, and how it navigates its complex relationships with the US and China and practices a "consistent, principled and pragmatic" foreign policy. It also touches on Singapore's external security threats, its internal politics and its approach to balancing political stability against civil liberties. Finally, it explains how Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong and political changes in the U.S. have impacted Singapore https://lnkd.in/e-zpnq5F

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The U.S. has never favoured a strong ASEAN or Asian-centric institutions. Alternative centres of influence (or poles) are incompatible with U.S. ambitions for regaining (or retaining) Primacy in the region. ASEAN centrality is the last thing the U.S. wants. In this thought-provoking piece, Brian Wong explores some of the questions given rise to by the results of a recent survey indicating a shift in attitudes across ASEAN away from the US and towards China. #asean #china #usa #asia #aseancentrality

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I had the pleasure of joining the RSIS | S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies​ podcast while in Singapore. In the episode, I argue that U.S. military retrenchment from the Middle East and Europe would enhance stability in the Indo-Pacific, contrary to fears that pull-backs anywhere would cascade into "isolationism" everywhere. Three reasons: 1. By pulling back from the Middle East and gradually transitioning to European leadership of European defense, the United States would address its growing problem of strategic insolvency, bringing its global commitments into line with its resources and will. 2. Because the United States would maintain commitments in the Indo-Pacific, while trimming its commitments elsewhere, its actions would ultimately reveal the strength of its interest in Indo-Pacific security and improve its credibility there. 3. Pruning elsewhere would improve the quality and appeal of U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Washington would refute Beijing's claim that the United States is out for global hegemony, clarifying that it seeks only to keep China from establishing a hegemony of its own. Listen here: https://lnkd.in/eNs47ey8

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Which presumptive presidential nominee would China prefer to see in the White House in 2025, TRUMP or BIDEN? IT DOESN’T MATTER because the US policy towards #China already has an established direction from which it will not deviate. The reason for this is that in the last few years a narrative has been developed in the #US that China is the only power in the international system that has the intention and ability to challenge the world order led by the US. As a result, the American public no longer accepts the idea of friendly cooperation with China, nor the idea that free trade opens up new opportunities for American corporations to compete on the world stage and brings benefits to American workers. Therefore, the new US president will have to continue to give the impression of a hard line policy towards China in public, while in practice there will still be a possibility for slight deviations in the direction of constructive #engagement because the US is still not ready for a comprehensive #confrontation or #decoupling with China. Although it seems that Joe #Biden has a softer, more pragmatic and predictable approach to the China issue, during his four-year term no significant shift from Trump's #hawkish policy towards China was made. On the contrary, #bipartisan unity on countering “China threat” was established. However, the Biden administration believes that there are several reasons – not only economic – for which the US should remain engaged with China, primarily cooperation in solving global problems and the excessive interconnection of the two economies. This approach of minimizing political costs coincides with the views of political realists and American companies doing business in China, who believe there is nothing wrong with finding ways for the US to coexist with another major economic power – China. Donald #Trump is less predictable and bases his approach more on #protectionism. Although his efforts did not have any significant results in practice, a spiral of events was started and a larger goal was achieved – China's economic rise was derailed. Trump publicly announces a return to the hardline policy against China that characterized his first term in the White House (an increase in "heavy tariffs" on China of up to 60% upon re-election). He committed to the continuation of some of Biden's initiatives, but without the support of the US allies (he will leave #IPEF, but will continue to implement the US-Japan partnership in opposing China), which could weaken the pressure on China that currently exists. Regarding #Taiwan, Trump believes that it "took away" American businesses away, he opposes the Senate bill aimed at providing foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and it is less likely that he would allow the US to be dragged into a costly war because he is aware that Taiwan indefensible.

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SINGAPORE—For the past few years, the West has been trying to break China’s grip on minerals that are critical for defense and green technologies. Despite their efforts, Chinese companies are becoming more dominant, not less. They are expanding operations, supercharging supply and causing prices to drop. Their challengers can’t compete. “China is not just standing still waiting for us to catch up,” said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines. “They are making investments on top of their already massive investments in all aspects of the critical-minerals supply chain.” Take nickel, which is needed for electric-vehicle batteries. Chinese processing plants that dot the Indonesian archipelago are pumping out vast quantities of the mineral from new and expanding facilities, jolting the market. Meanwhile, Switzerland-based mining giant Glencore is suspending operations at its nickel plant in New Caledonia, a French territory, concluding it can’t survive despite offers of financial help from Paris. The U.K.’s Horizonte Minerals, whose new Brazilian mine was expected to become a major Western source, said last month that investors had bailed, citing oversupply in the market. At least four nickel mines in Western Australia are winding down. China’s rapid industrial development also means its companies have spent decades fine-tuning the art of turning raw ore into metals. They can set up new facilities quickly and cheaply. A paper published in February by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies pegs the costs of building a lithium refinery outside China as three to four times higher than building one within the country. #energytransition #china #criticalminerals #supplychain #renewableenergy #electricvehicles #batteries #worldgameworkshop

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****Chinese BRI v. U.S. FDI:**** The comparison between China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and U.S. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a study in contrasting approaches to international economic engagement. China’s BRI: Scope: The BRI is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in nearly 70 countries and international organizations. Investment: It involves massive investments in various infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, railways, ports, and energy projects. Strategic Influence: The BRI is seen as a means for China to exert its influence globally, often tied to strategic geopolitical interests. U.S. FDI: Economic Ties: U.S. FDI is characterized by private investment decisions made by corporations, often seeking economic returns rather than geopolitical influence. Innovation and Standards: U.S. investments are often accompanied by a transfer of technology, adherence to higher environmental and labor standards, and a focus on sustainable development. Diplomatic Relations: The U.S. also uses FDI as a tool to strengthen diplomatic relations and promote economic development that aligns with Western standards of governance. In essence, while the BRI is a state-led initiative focusing on infrastructure and strategic depth, U.S. FDI is more diverse and driven by private sector interests, with a significant emphasis on innovation and standards. The two approaches reflect different philosophies and long-term objectives in shaping the global economic landscape. A Closer Look At China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): launched in 2013, it is indeed a significant geopolitical strategy that has had a substantial impact on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows, particularly in the regions it encompasses. The BRI is a vast network of infrastructure projects intended to enhance regional connectivity and facilitate economic growth across Asia and beyond. Impact on FDI Flows: Increased Share: China’s share in total inward FDI flows has seen a notable increase. For instance, in Southeast Asian countries, China’s share in total inward FDI increased from 0.8% in 2013 to 12.6% in 2016, and further to 17% in 20171. This rise is attributed to the BRI’s focus on infrastructure development, which tends to attract significant investment. Diverse Engagement: The BRI has conditioned the type of engagement that governments and firms are willing to take in Chinese-funded projects. It has influenced the selection of host-country firms and third-country Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) in BRI projects, with institutions and geopolitics playing a crucial role in this process. Challenges and Concerns: Financial Viability: There have been concerns about the financial viability of some BRI projects, with fears of countries falling into a “debt trap” due to the terms of loans and sovereignty issues. Let me know what you think!

Western Elites in Politics Need to Embrace Populism: A Roosevelt kind. A main tenet in the American constitution on what government should be says by the people for the people. Populism is an approach that appeals to the ordinary people according to an Oxford dictionary. So why do many European politicians decry populism. In short they are not that interested in what the Vox Populi or huge sections have to say. If they were, they would not find that since the 1960s the populist vote percentage has grown by about a whopping 300 percent. And coincidentally with the founding and serious growth of power in the EU. If the elites in the West were truly doing their job to generate and protect democracy within, they would not be faced with such a populist opposition. Blaming Putin on this is stupid. Take for instance in the early part of the nineteenth century. The so-called Robber Barons had a stranglehold on the economy and were pocketing immense fortunes while labor was treated badly, unsafely and food standards were atrocious all done to hype profits. In stepped Theodore Roosevelt a populist who rallied the country and even the courts against such horrible big businesses. But Roosevelt was a strategic populist taking on the worst combines such as JP Morgan and beating them in the courts even sometimes by a whisker. Roosevelt's head is carved into Mount Rushmore. He is considered one of the greatest US presidents but was no snow flake in defending US interests abroad.The fact he stayed out of big wars and got the Nobel prize for peace but also previously the Congressional medal of honour proves populism does not have to be a bad concept. But Trump appealing even indirectly to have his supporters storm the Congress is not an act of populism. It is an excessive appeal to the mob including those politicians like Kamala Harris who wanted to provide financial assistance to those involved or associated with mob-like violence of controlling downtowns and burning buildings including a police station. Appealing to mob violence or being soft on it was not what Roosevelt was about. What we need is a more sane populists and throwing out more politicians who are bought off by big money interests. And less of those who play to war that clearly the majority of western populations do not want including the terror Hamas and Netanyahu are projecting in Gaza. The Trump presidency aad recent EU elections especially in France and Germany say something important. The populations in democracies are evermore sick of a political order that increasingly does not want. to listen to their electorates. This is especially as the popular will is not in sync with the elites and their technocrats. I do not say the West represents the worst form of government. But the elites are working hard to get there with no Roosevelt populist types in sight. The Kremlin and Beijing may be licking their chops.

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The regulators explored emerging areas such as nature and biodiversity, ESG data model interoperability, and the use of AI and data analytics to enhance ESG data collection and usage. -with Gillian Koh Tan https://lnkd.in/gkxRqZAx #fintech #China #greenfinance #banking #AI

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More than 20 years ago, during another time, in response to another, earlier crisis confronting Malaysia and the rest of Asia’s rising economies, I envisioned a new modality of governing. And for managing government. We call this MADANI. In its simplest term, it is about governing and never forgetting who’s in charge. YOU. MADANI is a Malaysian approach to government, grounded in Malaysian values. Timeless values that are inherent in very man, woman and child across this beautiful country I am privileged to serve. MADANI will not only govern how we govern, but ensure we deliver for YOU. No matter your background. No matter where you are in Malaysia. Or around the world. MADANI is a path for transformation. Governed by our values. Driven by innovation. For transforming our Malaysia, together, to a better and brighter future. For all of us. A key pillar to our MADANI economic transformation programme is to enable and empower Malaysians to innovate. To leverage today’s technologies for tomorrow’s challenges. To create using the latest tools - and hopefully, by creating new Malaysian innovations of our own - to solve some of our country’s, and this world’s - most intractable challenges. I’ll have more to say on this, tomorrow morning at the KL20 StartUp Summit at the KLCC. If you’re around, please do drop by. #MADANIMalaysia #madani #malaysia #innovate #create #KL20

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