First Super Bowl? Ranking Each NFL Team's Likelihood to Win First Lombardi in 2024

Exactly 20 NFL franchises have won at least one Super Bowl—a number that hasn't changed since the Philadelphia Eagles finally joined that club at the conclusion of the 2017 season.

However, based on odds from DraftKings, four of the top seven Super Bowl favorites are teams that have never claimed the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Let's look at those four as well as the eight other Super Bowl-less teams and their chances of breaking through in 2024.

Despite the fact they took some hits under a cap crunch this offseason, the foundation is still there for a Bills team that undoubtedly possesses a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen.

Allen has been in the MVP mix annually for pretty much his entire career, and if he personally takes the next step in his age-28 season, it might not matter if he's slightly less supported now than in recent campaigns.

The Bills have won at least one playoff game in each of the last four postseasons. It's entirely possible this is the year they finally string three or four together.

Likelihood: 10%

The Bengals were a perennial contender on Buffalo's level before quarterback Joe Burrow's injuries tanked their 2023 season. Like the Bills, they also suffered a bit in the offseason as a result of salary cap constraints, but a healthy Burrow absolutely leaves Cincinnati in the Lombardi mix.

Only the Bills and four other teams have stronger Super Bowl odds than Cincy, and there's a decent chance Burrow stays healthy and also takes his game to the next level at the age of 28.

If so, a Bengals team that won five playoff games in 2021 and 2022 could finally grab a championship.

Likelihood: 9%

Only the 49ers have better Super Bowl odds in the NFC than a Lions team that on paper is even better now than it was when it won a dozen games and came just a few points short of its first-ever Super Bowl appearance in 2023.

The overall talent level in Detroit probably trumps Buffalo and Cincinnati at this point, but the defense was often still a liability in 2023, it's still tougher to buy into Jared Goff than it is Allen or Burrow, and it's fair to still wonder if this franchise remains snake-bitten.

The Lions snuck up on the league a bit last year. Will it be tough to maintain that and live up to the hype in '24? It's worth considering, but they absolutely should be in the mix and a run to the Super Bowl is definitely on the table.

Likelihood: 8%

This is all about trajectory. Just a year ago, the Texans ranked dead last in this exercise, but C.J. Stroud and Co. were so incredibly successful under the tutelage of DeMeco Ryans in a shocking breakout '23 campaign that it's hard to deny Houston's realistic Super Bowl chances in '24.

In addition to the three teams listed above, only the Chiefs, 49ers and Ravens have better championship odds than Houston.

That's what happens when you're loaded with young talent and you add dudes like Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs to the mix.

Still, we've seen this movie before with teams that surprise the league and then come back to earth. Opponents will be ready for Stroud et al in 2024, and a sophomore slump can't be ruled out for him, Ryans and/or Will Anderson Jr.

That's why we're going a little more conservative with Houston for now.

Likelihood: 5%

The Jaguars may have choked late in 2023, but it's important to remember this is still a team that was 8-3 entering December thanks in part to the fact quarterback Trevor Lawrence has elite ability.

Blessed with a big new contract and healthy again after an injury-marred '23 campaign, the former No. 1 overall pick could be on the verge of a breakout age-25 season. And it helps that the defense has undergone a makeover, leaving Jacksonville in a good position to rebound and build on a season that saw them post a top-10 DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) total.

That puts them in the same conversation as Houston, despite what the official odds suggest.

Likelihood: 4%

The Chargers reside with the Jaguars, Browns and Falcons as middle-of-the-pack contenders in terms of the Vegas odds. It's far-fetched, but far from impossible considering the presence of talented young quarterback Justin Herbert and his venerable new head coach, Jim Harbaugh.

Could those two make sudden magic in their inaugural season together? It's not at all out of the question, and it's fair to expect a steady improvement from a five-win 2023 campaign if Herbert can simply return to his form from previous seasons in '24.

That being said, this was a bottom-10 defense that doesn't look significantly better now than it was when the Bolts lost eight of their last nine games in 2023.

The Chargers are probably a year away at best.

Likelihood: 3%

Look, they made the playoffs despite not getting much from supposed franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson in 2023. If a healthy Watson can remain that way and finally regain the magic from his days in Houston, and if that jacked defense can dominate again, the Browns could very well make a surprise Super Bowl run.

The problem is it's very hard to believe in Watson, who has played in just a dozen games since the end of 2020 and hasn't been particularly effective in those outings.

Likelihood: 3%

The arrival of Kirk Cousins means the Falcons have a non-zero chance of getting back into Super Bowl contention eight years after they came excruciatingly close to capturing their first title in a meltdown loss to New England.

Cousins was lighting it up before going down with a season-ending Achilles injury in Minnesota in 2023, and he's got a tremendous supporting cast on his side in Atlanta.

Still, Cousins is coming off a major injury, he'll be 36 next month, he's been part of just one playoff win in his NFL career, and the defense looks like a potential liability for a team that ranked 28th in DVOA in 2023.

It's a stretch.

Likelihood: 2%

Kyler Murray.

That's the reason the Cardinals aren't in the "realistically impossible" category that includes the three teams yet to be listed here.

Murray was one of the league's most electric quarterbacks in 2020 and 2021. Health luck and support weren't on his side as the Cardinals rebuilt the last two years, but they spent some money to improve this offseason and Murray is healthy ahead of his age-27 season.

If he can suddenly become a megastar in 2024, the Cardinals could make a highly improbable early run.

That said, they're likely still a year away if things go right.

Likelihood: 1%

A rookie quarterback has never won a Super Bowl, and I don't get the feeling J.J. McCarthy is about to buck that trend. I'm not giving up on Sam Darnold, but even with Justin Jefferson as a top weapon, that's pretty damn far-fetched as well.

The Vikings were a double-digit-loss team in 2023, and that is very likely to be the case again in 2024.

Likelihood: < 1%

Maybe Bryce Young does a 180 after a horrendous rookie season, but even that doesn't likely turn a 15-loss team into a Super Bowl winner.

It's an inevitable work in progress for a Panthers squad that was dead last in DVOA by a wide margin last year.

That's why they have the worst Super Bowl odds in the league entering training camp.

Likelihood: < 1%

But Young still has a much higher ceiling than Will Levis for a Titans team that did add L'Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard in the offseason but still simply lacks the talent on both sides of the ball to be considered a contender.

The rebuild continues, even with some expensive vets confusingly on board.

Likelihood: < 1%