2025 NBA Free Agency: Top 30 Player Rankings to Know Now

The ink is barely dry on Paul George's four-year, $212 million deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, an agreement that headlined a frantic and consequential 2024 NBA free-agency period.

If you thought George and several other heavy hitters securing new contracts meant we could forget about the transactional side of the league for a while, you're not appreciating the NBA's always-on nature.

That's right. It's already time to look ahead to next summer, when a brand new crop of free agents will hit the market, putting us all through another dizzying stretch of rumors, speculation, and, ultimately, league-altering player movement.

Bleacher Report's Dan Favale and Grant Hughes are here with an entirely too early (but is it, really?) look at the next class of top NBA free agents. We've even ranked them on the basis of the clout those players are expected to have following the 2024-25 season.

Nobody could have guessed at this time last year that Klay Thompson would be a member of the Dallas Mavericks, a great reminder that plenty can change from one July to the next. We don't know where any of the following players are going. But we can say for sure that they'll feature heavily in the ensuing 12 months of free-agency chatter.

Trends change in the NBA all the time, but shooting is the skill that always stays in style.

That's why Duncan Robinson might have good reason to exercise one of league's few remaining Early Termination Options after next season. Set to make $19.4 million in 2024-25, Robinson could eschew $19.8 million the following year, choosing instead to take his reliable sharpshooting and ever-expanding offensive game to the highest bidder.

Through his age 29 season, Robinson is a 39.8 percent career marksman on over 2,500 attempts—many of them of the difficult, on-the-move variety. That ability makes him useful to any team in need of stretch and offensive dynamism

Perhaps more importantly in an NBA decreasingly interested in pure specialists, Robinson keeps adding new layers. Once a total non-threat to attack a closeout, Robinson can now put it on the deck and either finish with craft or find teammates. Last year, he added a full assist per game to his previous career high of 1.8. And it's telling that his pair of finishes in the top 15 of Most Improved Player voting came four years apart.

Robinson has a singular skill, but keeps adding others. That's how he flipped the script on a career trajectory that had him looking like he was done in the NBA as recently as 2022-23. Now, he could turn down nearly $20 million in search of more.

-Hughes

Just missed the cut: Bruce Brown; Clint Capela; Dorian Finney-Smith (player option); Josh Giddey (restricted); Al Horford; Caris LeVert; Brook Lopez; T.J. McConnell; Larry Nance Jr.; and Bobby Portis Jr.

It's tough to fully divorce the postseason benchings from all the positives D'Angelo Russell brings to his team's offensive attack. The shadow those playoff issues cast over the 28-year-old's reputation are probably the reason D-Lo chose not to enter free agency this summer.

Russell picked up his $18.7 million player option with the Los Angeles Lakers for 2024-25 and will try to boost his value ahead of unrestricted free agency next July.

Some portion of that effort may not be in Russell's hands. He'll have to prove he can get the job done in the games that matter most, which means the Lakers will need to make the playoffs in an increasingly difficult West. Once there, Russell will have to perform way above career levels that include 38.8 percent shooting from the field and 32.7 percent from long distance.

If you don't think teams are fixated on Russell's viability as a postseason performer, how else do you explain the lack of interest in one of just three players to average at least 18.0 points and 6.0 assists while shooting at least 41.0 percent from deep this past season? He could reprise those stats, flounder in the playoffs and find yet another tepid market in 2025.

Or, Russell could post a career season for first-year head coach JJ Redick, show out in the playoffs and set himself up for a nine-figure contract.

-Hughes

Terance Mann is eligible to sign a four-year extension that could clock in somewhere between $78 million and $80 million. At 27, going on 28 in October, he shouldn't need to think too hard about signing it. But this presumes the Los Angeles Clippers offer him that deal.

Extending Mann doesn't quite square away with Los Angeles' apparent intent to star-hunt toward or at the end of Kawhi Leonard's current contract. More than that, it's not entirely clear the Clippers would offer Mann the whole kit and kaboodle. Their view of him has always seemingly paled in comparison to fans and media members alike. His role is never quite as large or assured as you'd think.

This could speak to Mann's underlying value. Or it could just be relative mismanagement by the Clippers.

Lean toward the latter.

Mann's defensive reputation is a degree or three inflated. But he's proven to be a body the Clippers can at least throw onto premier guards and wings—even though he's not especially long.

His offense, meanwhile, is one-size-fits-all. He doesn't require the ball but has more patience with his live dribble than many ancillary devices. He's also a fairly intuitive cutter, and although he dipped below 35 percent on spot-up treys last year, this profiles as an anomaly relative to past performances (and what he did during the 2024 postseason).

—Favale

So much brainpower is expended focusing on what Cam Thomas doesn't do. And, well, that's fair. The list of question marks is quite extensive.

Does he take and make enough threes? Can he get to the rim more often? Finish more efficiently? Does he have another playmaking level? Can he bring enough consistent energy and effort on the defensive end?

Once more, with feeling: These are all valid issues on which to harp. But we also, collectively, as a family, must appreciate that he's among the most eruptive scorers in existence.

Thomas just cleared 22 points per game for a doomed-to-the-bottom-of-the-middle Brooklyn Nets team that wasn't built to make his job easier. Even so, that output is not the direct result of junk volume. Thomas upped his three-point-attempt rate from 2022-23 and improved his efficiency from inside the arc.

None of this translated into can't-miss efficiency. Thomas' 55.4 true shooting percentage last season remained well below the league's average of 58.0. But the difficulty of his role has to matter.

He posted a usage rate north of 30...at the age of 22. Only 19 other players have done the same while logging over 2,000 minutes before their 23rd birthday—a list heavily populated by current and future Hall of Famers, and one that bottoms out at guys like Cade Cunningham and D'Angelo Russell.

That latter crop of players looms large when figuring out what's next for Thomas. He may have a higher floor than advertised. And though the Nets can extend him, they're early into the business of being purposefully bad. This suggests he'll not only hit restricted free agency, but that the right offer sheet could render him gettable once he gets there.

—Favale

Between his itinerant career and several injury-shortened seasons, Malcolm Brogdon is an easy guy to lose track of. When he suits up for the Washington Wizards this year, he'll don his fifth different jersey in nine seasons.

There's a good bet he'll make it six when the rebuilding Wizards inevitably flip him for a draft pick at some point before the 2025 trade deadline.

Teams evaluating Brogdon when he hits free agency next summer should keep in mind that he won Sixth Man of the Year with the Celtics in 2022-23. That honor came after he spent three seasons as a full-time starter for the Pacers, posting averages of 18.9 points, 6.3 assists and 5.1 rebounds. Whether you need the veteran guard to run the show or fill a bit part, he's proved he can handle anything.

Brogdon came into the league as a 24-year-old rookie, so he's got fewer prime years left than most of his draft classmates. But when healthy, he's produced for winning teams in a variety of roles and has always brought valuable adult-in-the-room vibes. Even though he'll be 32 when he enters free agency, Brogdon's track record could earn him $20 million per season from the right team.

-Hughes

Ivica Zubac often gets painted as just another lumbering center—a categorization that sells him eons short.

Yes, Zu does a lot of conventional big-man stuff. That's because, well, he's big. He can screen and roll and punish teams on the offensive glass.

But the seven-footer also leverages deceptively quick feet at both ends of the floor. While he's far from matchup-proof, you can't readily downsize him off the court. He can hold his own away from the basket on defense, and regardless of the opponent or how fast the Los Angeles Clippers are playing on a given night, he's able to get up and down the floor with above-board quickness.

There's also an unheralded versatility to how Zubac can protect the paint. He's at his most comfortable when tasked with patrolling the basket, but he can deter and send back shots after switching onto primary ball-handlers or when recovering off rotations. Opponents converted just 49.6 percent of their looks at the rim against him last season—the stingiest mark in the NBA among 128 players to contest at least three point-blank attempts per game.

Bigs who don't chuck threes or frequently break down defenses off the dribble are forever at risk of getting lost in the shuffle. Zubac is going to have a wider market than your replacement-level center—particularly when he'll only be 28 next summer.

Then again, the Clippers might not let him get into open waters. He's eligible to sign a four-year, estimated $78 to $80 million extension, a deal he might sign, and one the team should definitely offer.

—Favale

At this time next year, Khris Middleton will be a few weeks away from his 34th birthday as he considers whether to exercise his $34 million player option. If 2024-25 plays out like his last two years, which included a total of 88 games marred by injury and marked by declines in defensive mobility, it's possible he won't be willing to turn down that much guaranteed money.

Then again, all it'd take to make declining the option a smart decision is the availability of, say, a two-plus-one agreement at roughly half the annual value of his option. Let's call it a three-year contract worth $63 million. He'd have to at least consider hitting free agency if he could secure another $29 million in guaranteed cash.

Even in a reduced role last season, Middleton averaged 15.1 points per game on a 59.5 true shooting percentage, the second-highest accuracy rate of his career. And across these last two difficult seasons, he's averaged over 7.0 assists per 100 possessions—something he'd never done before and good evidence that he's finding new ways to be effective as he ages.

No longer a star, Middleton could prove he's still a high-end starter on a good team this coming season. If he does that, maybe that hypothetical $63 million deal will fall short of reality and make entering free agency a no-brainer.

-Hughes

Almost every free agent we've covered comes with some form of asterisk. Whether it's a player option, the possibility of an extension or some other variable, most of these guys could find themselves off the market.

Not so for Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner, who can't extend his current deal and has no other means to avoid unrestricted free agency in 2025.

Assuming Turner produces at his typical levels, he'll be in prime position to blow his 2024-25 salary of $19.9 million out of the water. Twice a top-10 finisher in DPOY voting and one of the few true floor-stretching bigs who can also protect the paint, Turner will have appeal for every team in the league.

Though he may never earn an All-Star nod, the 28-year-old's unique combination of skills make him a universal fit. Teams that don't have Turner (of which there are 29) are always looking for "someone like Myles Turner." Next summer, the genuine article will be available.

And the fact that he's now going to be on a bigger stage as the Pacers look to replicate last year's run to the Conference Finals will only drive up interest.

-Hughes

Naz Reid is no longer sneaky good. He's mainstream good.

The Minnesota Timberwolves ascent into championship contention cast a spotlight onto everyone. That means people started taking notice of Reid's shooting and driving and capacity to fit alongside any other big-man archetype and even buy minutes as the lone man in the middle.

His cult following transformed into national infatuation, for good, once Karl-Anthony Towns suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee at the end of March. From that point forward, over his final 18 appearances, Reid averaged 17.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.3 blocks while downing 43.0 percent of his triples.

Questions, of course, remain. People are split on Reid's defensive impact. He can hang in space and bolstered his rim protection this past year, but he has moments down low and on the perimeter in which he provides very little resistance. That's a nitpicky issue when you're a team's second or third big. It becomes a more prominent wrinkle if you're looking for a perma-spot as someone's starting center.

Granted, these concerns will do little to repress Reid's market. He's slated to hit free agency ahead of his age-26 season. A four-year contract will take him right through the meat and potatoes of his prime.

Sure, the market for non-star bigs is always weird. But between his age, shooting and scalability, Reid has little reason to consider picking up his $15 million player option for 2025-26—unless the Wolves are planning to extend him off that number.

—Favale

Catch Jonathan Kuminga on the right nights—the ones when he's soaring past the defense, attacking opponents with A-plus athleticism and generally looking like a superstar in waiting—and it's hard to imagine the Golden State Warriors letting him hit restricted free agency next summer.

Catch him on the wrong ones—when he's neither crashing the glass nor getting back in transition, giving in to his hero-ball tendencies and spending a little too long processing the action before making a decision—and you can understand why the Dubs might prefer to stay flexible and hold off on the extension that'd take him off the market.

Like many of the second-timeline Warriors, Kuminga has had a tough time securing a role across his three-year tenure. He's started 74 of his 211 career games and basically had to campaign through the media to solidify a spot in head coach Steve Kerr's rotation midway through last season.

His upcoming fourth season could be a defining one. A ridiculously strong and springy 6'8" forward with a shot to be a first-option alpha is a rare thing. Last year, Kuminga averaged 16.1 points per game and racked up the highlights while still occasionally looking lost. That's a high floor, and the whole "early Kawhi Leonard" comps still apply.

Kuminga will turn 22 just before the start of the 2024-25 campaign, and if he explodes, he has a better chance to rocket up this list than almost anyone else.

-Hughes

Alex Caruso is yet another name on this list who could end up never reaching the open market. He will be eligible for a four-year, approximately $78 million extension six months from the official completion date of his trade to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Will he sign it? Will the Thunder even offer it? (Yes, they will.) That much remains to be seen. For now, though, he's slated to reach free agency. And if he gets there, almost the entire league will be interested in his services.

Caruso is one of the Association's most valuable defenders, bar none—someone who can capably, if not suffocatingly, guard four positions while wreaking havoc in passing lanes. His on-ball offensive chops have gaps, but he can make plays with a live dribble and improved his floater touch during the 2023-24 campaign.

Part of Caruso's appeal also lies in those "gaps," so to speak. That he's not a ball-dominant floor general renders him infinitely scalable—someone who can play off anyone. And he just canned over 40 percent of his triples on a career-high 5.9 attempts per 36 minutes.

Age could become a factor when talking salary and contract length. Caruso will be 31 when he reaches free agency. But his game is not founded around detonative athleticism, and he's yet to even crack 10,000 total regular-season and playoff minutes for his career. His impact should age reasonably well.

—Favale

Jalen Green is among the most divisive players on this list—so much so you can get into a spirited debate over whether he'll even hit restricted free agency. The Houston Rockets can sign him to a rookie-scale extension this offseason, thereby removing him from the pool of available talent.

Entirely ruling out that scenario would be foolish. Yes, the Rockets have deliberately structured their books to have cap space again in 2025, and signing Green adds guaranteed money to next summer's sheet. But his projected restricted-free-agent hold is so large ($37-plus million) that it doesn't necessarily matter. Houston, in all likelihood, will be better off putting his new number on its books unless he commands a max salary (projected $38.7 million).

This is a natural segue into a question without anything resembling a definitive answer: How much is Green worth? Not just to the Rockets, but in a vacuum?

Good luck settling on an answer now. Green is a human bucket who has flashed everything from tough shot-making off the bounce and uncontainable rim pressure to live-dribble kick-outs and pocket passes and bankable spot-up touch. He's also struggled to deliver that entire package all at once over extended periods of time.

Putting him here, in the middle of this exercise, is both a hedge against his red flags and a nod to his continued development.

Green is entering his age-22 season, making him far from a finished product. And the list of players who have averaged as many points (19.8) and knocked down as many threes (545) through the first three years of their career, quite frankly, should compel all of us to skew toward hope: Anthony Edwards, Buddy Hield, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell and Klay Thompson.

—Favale

Nobody should feel too sorry for Fred VanVleet if, after this season, the Houston Rockets decline his $44.9 million team option and send the veteran point guard into unrestricted free agency.

The three-year, $130 million deal he signed in the 2023 offseason was widely understood to be a short-term overpay for a Rockets squad that needed veteran leadership and organization on offense. FVV delivered that in 2023-24 and was key to propelling Houston from 22 to 41 wins in the span of a year.

Now, though, the Rockets have No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard in the pipeline alongside second-year athletic dynamo Amen Thompson. Both project to spend many seasons in Houston's backcourt, possibly with former No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green. By this time next year, the Rockets will struggle to justify devoting so much cash to VanVleet when they've used multiple high lottery picks in the same positional group.

VanVleet looked as good as ever this past season, averaging 17.4 points and 8.1 assists while shooting 38.7 percent on 8.0 three-point attempts per game. Entering his age-30 season, he's got every chance of repeating those numbers. If he does, and if the Rockets decline his team option, he'll be one of the most sought-after veteran point guards out there—even if teams only have interest in handing him another short-term deal.

-Hughes

Jalen Suggs will get bounced from the 2025 restricted free-agency ranks if he and the Orlando Magic agree on an extension. Contrary to Franz Wagner's situation, though, his value feels more debatable.

Persisting offensive limitations will likely preclude the Magic from handing him a max or near-max agreement out of the gate. That doesn't mean he shouldn't ask for one.

Suggs is fresh off a deserved All-Defensive Second Team selection and has made noticeable improvements to his offensive armory. People are most drawn to his 39.7 percent clip from three on more than five attempts per game. Rightfully so, too. But he has added polish and playmaking to his drives and attacks on the break.

Maybe you don't have faith in Suggs developing enough floor-general tendencies to be viewed as a hub or top-three cornerstone. That's fine. But his impact is felt across so many areas, putting him in rarefied air and leaving him closer to max territory than not.

Only five other players have matched or exceeded Suggs' 2023-24 assist, steal and block rate benchmarks while posting a true shooting percentage of 60 or better: Charles Barkley (1985-86), Alex Caruso (2023-24), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2023-24), Bobby Jones (1976-77) and Michael Jordan (1987-88).

—Favale

Here is the definitive list of NBA teams that should be in the market for a 6'8" wing who holds his own on defense and knocks down, ahem, treys from pretty much anywhere on the floor, including off motion:

• All of them

This bodes well for Trey Murphy's market. It'll also bode well for his extension talks with the New Orleans Pelicans, who should be incredibly motivated to rip him out of the restricted free agency ranks.

Murphy's agent, Sean Kennedy, should enter negotiations looking for a four-year max ($173.2 million) or five-year max ($224.2 million)—or something close to it. The Pelicans should push back, noting Murphy has shown on-ball flashes but still relies on getting teed up, and that he doesn't shoulder a heavy enough defensive workload to be viewed in the same vein as OG Anunoby or Herb Jones.

"Trigga Trey" and his camp, in turn, should point out that if Murphy gets to restricted free agency, a four-year max from another team ($166.2 million) will probably await. New Orleans could then let him play out next season and have the market set his rate or offer to meet him somewhere in the middle, with a deal below the max that still promises life-changing financial security.

Full disclosure: I have no idea where these negotiations wind up. It seems like Murphy could sign an extension that easily outstrips money Jaden McDaniels (five years, $131 million) and Devin Vassell (five years, $135 million) received last summer. But it wouldn't shock me if the number is lower. Or if no extension gets done at all.

Nearly every possible outcome feels as if it's on the table.

—Favale

If the Atlanta Hawks are smart, they will extend the could-have-won-Most-Improved-Player-award-if-he-appeared-in-more-games Jalen Johnson and jettison him from the restricted-free-agency ranks.

The 22-year-old was a blindingly bright silver lining in a season fraught with hard truths and painful reality checks. Johnson expanded his offensive portfolio beyond even the most optimistic boundaries.

His efficiency from deep (35.5 percent overall, 39 percent above the break) received a ton of (warranted) attention, but he also emerged as a dependable weapon in transition as well as someone who could attack out of dead stops; change speeds on a dime; get opponents on his back hip; tilt defenses with his floater and footwork counters; kick out of drives; thread needles through traffic and baseline coverage; and just generally keep the ball moving.

For the time being, Johnson's defensive value is more entrenched in malleability than outright effectiveness. But he's displayed good instincts around the basket and away from the ball, and he's shown he can stand his ground against bigger, advantage-creation forwards.

Regardless of whether Johnson signs an extension or gets to restricted free agency, anyone who doesn't occasionally watch the Hawks should brace themselves against potential sticker shock. This is someone who's absolutely averaging more than $30 million per year in his next deal.

—Favale

Rudy Gobert could decline his 2025-26 player option in order to sign a more cap-friendly extension this summer.

But with the Minnesota Timberwolves' long-term payroll prompting nonstop speculation about a cost-cutting Karl-Anthony Towns trade, the Wolves may not be so eager to commit themselves to more years and dollars than they already owe the four-time Defensive Player of the Year.

If Minnesota could get Gobert to agree to a major price reduction on his $46.7 million player option for 2025-26, maybe a deal to take him off the 2025 market would make sense. Realistically, it'd be odd for a guy who just earned another DPOY for captaining the best defense in the league to take a preemptive pay cut.

If Gobert is a free agent in 2025, his age and offensive limitations mean he won't have 29 suitors. However, the right contender will be justified in offering a two or three-year max contract. Gobert showed how valuable he can be on a big-time winner with the Wolves this past season, and there's no reason to believe he won't do it again in 2024-25.

-Hughes

Aaron Gordon is eligible to sign an extension that runs up to four years and $144.7 million. The Denver Nuggets can likely ensure he never hits the market if they offer it—or some version of a new deal.

Will they, though?

Denver is clearly fretting about the long-term cost of its core. But Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is already gone. Bruce Brown left before him. (In the team's defense, they had no way of keeping the latter.) Whereas general manager Calvin Booth can peddle this idea that the Nuggets have at least one replacement for KCP on the roster, none of their youngsters can plausibly profile as a stand-in for Gordon—not now, not later.

That gives Gordon leverage KCP didn't have after declining his player option. It's also why AG will be so sought after if he does reach free agency.

A lot of his offensive value is tied to moving and positioning himself off the ball, and most will shudder to think what he'll look like when once again outside the comfy confines of Nikola Jokić's artistry. But Gordon does have independent value—mainly as someone who can grab rebounds and orchestrate transition opportunities; facilitate from standstills behind the arc and the high post; and mash mismatches via open-space drives and paint touches.

Toss in a defensive CV that now features extensive reps at the 5, and Gordon has officially established himself as someone every team should want. That shouldn't change before next summer, even as he approaches his 30th birthday.

—Favale

Many will have Franz Wagner exiting this list by inevitably agreeing to an extension with the Orlando Magic. I probably fall into that camp.

Big wings who can hold their own defensively, put the ball on the deck, navigate and finish through traffic and comfortably play off primary ball-handlers don't grow on trees. Hell, they're not even made in labs.

Combine Wagner's archetypal scarcity with Orlando opting against rolling over its 2024 cap space into 2025, and you get a situation ready-made for an extension.

Does that hold true if Wagner and his camp are pushing for a five-year, $224.2 million max? What about if he wants language in the deal that juices the total value over $269 million should he make an All-NBA team?

Plenty of other people will insist an agreement is reached anyway. I'm more curious, if not skeptical—mostly because I want to make sure his perimeter touch hasn't indefinitely regressed.

Wagner shot under 44 percent on two-point jumpers and below 29 percent from three last season. And those marks got worse in the playoffs.

Mechanically speaking, nothing sinister seems to be at play. This drop-off could feasibly be the byproduct of defenses keying in on him and Paolo Banchero because they were surrounded by so many non-threats.

All the same, this is not the most ideal time for Wagner to be insisting on a max deal. He might get it—without any muss or fuss. But the Magic could also view his extension value as more negotiable than they would have time last year.

–Favale

In many other situations, Alperen Sengün would be a lock to sign a hefty rookie-scale extension this summer, which would keep him out of 2025 free agency altogether. Fresh off a third-place finish in Most Improved Player voting, the Turkish big man proved he could function as an offensive hub by averaging 21.1 points and 5.0 assists to go along with 9.3 boards per game.

The Rockets, though, have to be choosy. Draft classmate Jalen Green is also extension eligible this offseason, and several other recent Houston picks are lined up for new money in subsequent summers. That means Sengün, despite his massive production, could find himself hitting restricted free agency in 2025.

Assuming he meets or beats the 2023-24 numbers he produced as a 21-year-old, Sengün will have multiple suitors willing to fork over the max next summer.

Though he comes with some defensive questions, Sengün is one of the top offensive players likely to hit the market—one with considerable upside given his youth. Multiple All-Star nods are in his future.

-Hughes

Initial reporting at the outset of free agency from The Athletic's Shams Charania had Cade Cunningham agreeing to a five-year max extension with the Detroit Pistons. That deal would be worth around $224.2 million, unless it has language that could upgrade the agreement to $269 million should Cunningham make an All-NBA team.

However!

ESPN's Bobby Marks reported less than 10 minutes later that while the two sides have talked, "no deal is imminent." Was Marks' source merely referring to Cunningham not being able to sign his extension until the moratorium period is lifted? Do we defer to Shams' insider information, even though he had the projected max value wrong?

Grant and I have decided it's better to be safe than sorry. So, Cunningham is included here until we get official confirmation.

Either way, I'd bet on a deal getting done. With that said, the Pistons changing front office regimes adds an interesting dynamic to the equation.

Cunningham wasn't drafted by current team president Trajan Langdon. Does this open the door for hard-ball negotiations that end with the 22-year-old exploring restricted free agency? Again, I'd wager against it. But there will be those who don't consider him a no-brainer max candidate at the moment.

That might be fair. Personally, I disagree.

Worrying about Cunningham's health is one thing. But a nicely sized point wing who got his turnover problems under control by season's end in the face of suboptimal spacing and who drilled almost 43 percent of his step-back threes (18-of-42) is worth a max payday dice roll in my book.

–Favale

It's hard to believe because he signed his three-year, $126 million deal with the Dallas Mavericks just one year ago, but Kyrie Irving is poised to be one of the top options in 2025 free agency.

To hit the market, Irving would have to decline his $43 million player option for 2025-26. Though that would have seemed unrealistic at many points over the past year, Irving's critical role on a Mavs team that reached the Finals reconfirmed his status as a premium talent. His big-game experience and unsurpassed offensive skill make him a clean fit as a second option to superstars, which should generate interest from most of the league.

Much will depend on whether Irving can match or exceed this past season's total of 58 games played. Though some teams may be willing to overlook his persistent unavailability if they're solely fixated on what Irving could do for them in the playoffs, most will hesitate to pay up for someone who hasn't stayed on the floor consistently.

It should also go without saying that Irving's 2023-24 season was freer of off-court distractions than any in a long time. He'll have to maintain that trend if he wants to maximize his number of suitors.

-Hughes

A two-time All-NBA honoree whose uncommon scoring chops at the forward spot somehow always get mentioned after his limitations, Julius Randle could find himself very near the top of the 2025 free-agent class.

That will all depend on how many of the other top-flight names sign extensions to take themselves off the market, but it seems fair to say the New York Knicks' recent blockbuster moves make it less likely they'll pile extra years and dollars onto Randle a year before they have to.

A trade before next summer could change the calculus, but let's assume the Knicks hold onto Randle through 2024-25. After that, he can hit free agency by declining his $30.8 million player option for 2025-26.

Though he makes for a tricky fit in many landing spots because he's prone to bouts of tunnel vision, needs the ball to be most effective and has never rated as a high-end defender, Randle provides high-volume shot creation from the power forward spot. He's averaged at least 20.0 points and 4.0 assists in each of the last four seasons.

A rediscovery of the stroke that helped him drill a career-high 41.1 percent of his treys in 2020-21 (career 33.3 percent) could juice Randle's market value to superstar levels.

-Hughes

Brandon Ingram picked the wrong time for a down year, but he has a chance to recharge his earning potential in what's looking like a "prove it" 2024-25 season.

Ingram is "unlikely" to land a max extension from the New Orleans Pelicans this summer, per Will Guillory of The Athletic, and one can understand New Orleans' hesitation. Ingram is coming off his lowest scoring average since 2018-19 and, more importantly, did very little to dispel the notion that he's not an ideal fit next to franchise cornerstone Zion Williamson.

A trade could result in Ingram looking more like the guy who made the West All-Star team and won Most Improved Player back in 2019-20. It's become increasingly clear that Ingram does his best work as an on-ball threat, but he's not going to occupy a primary role next to Williamson and new Pels addition Dejounte Murray.

Strip all the team context and contingencies away, and Ingram's 2025 free-agency profile is still strong. He'll be entering his age-28 season as a high-scoring oversized wing with enough length to make a difference on D. If he plays outside of New Orleans this season, Ingram could put up numbers that justify a superstar salary. And even if he stays put, he could still create a rosy financial outlook by embracing high-volume three-point shooting and a commitment to defense.

That both of those possibilities are realistic speaks to Ingram's cash-in potential.

-Hughes

Thirsty fanbases shouldn't get too excited about Jamal Murray's scheduled free agency. It sounds like he'll hash out a four-year, $207.8 million max extension with the Denver Nuggets once he's eligible on Jul. 6.

Locking him down is a no-brainer for Mile High's finest. Murray's synergy with franchise superstar Nikola Jokić is an all-time dynamic, and the 27-year-old remains among the most dangerous off-the-dribble three-point threats in basketball.

For discussion's sake, though, let's assume Murray reaches the open market and takes meetings. A four-year max from rival teams would run around $199.4 million. Barring catastrophic injury next season, he'd likely have no trouble getting another suitor to put that on the table.

And yet, it might not be an easy decision for every team.

Murray doesn't have the cleanest bill of health, and more importantly, his value when detached from Jokić is up in the air at best. Certain destinations could be scared off by how poorly Denver's offense tends to fare when he's running the show without his three-time-MVP safety net.

–Favale

Evan Mobley is a good bet to vacate the 2025 free-agency pool at some point. He's eligible to sign his rookie-scale extension, and without any immediate paths to cap space, the Cleveland Cavaliers have little reason not to iron out an agreement posthaste.

Potential hang-ups come into play if Mobley pushes for a five-year max worth $224.2 million and the Cavs aren't yet sure he's that guy. Any skepticism is mostly fair. Mobley has reiterated his defensive value time and again, but his offensive niche remains something of a mystery.

To what end his frontcourt partnership with Jarrett Allen has stunted his growth is in the eye of the beholder. Mobley actually shot a better percentage inside the arc last season with Allen (63.0 percent) than without him (58.3 percent), according to PBP Stats. His usage rate didn't change nearly enough as part of those on-off splits to declare their alliance part of the problem. Ditto for the Cavs' offensive rating with just Mobley (113.9) versus their output when playing both bigs (112.8).

There is nevertheless room for inquiry. Cleveland's offense shined when Allen played without Mobley and just generally looked better when deploying one big. New head coach Kenny Atkinson will likely stagger the duo as aggressively as J.B. Bickerstaff, his predecessor, did by year's end. But the Cavs must find ways to be at their best, for extended stretches, with both "centers" on the floor, otherwise keeping them together doesn't make much sense.

The burden of actualization largely falls on Mobley. He has started exploring looks beyond the arc and continues to make strides as a playmaker and finisher through contact. But the theory of this exact Cavs core only pans out if he takes his biggest leap yet.

At 23, he's young and talented enough to churn out a more dominant and versatile final form. His defensive utility alone is likely worth a max or near-max extension. Still, this could possibly become a thorny negotiation, perhaps even one that results in Cleveland asking Mobley to prove his worth and delaying a contract decision until he hits restricted free agency.

—Favale

The Miami Heat can count on Jimmy Butler for one more year. Everything after that is up in the air.

Per Shams Charania of The Athletic, Butler will "play out next season on his existing contract with the Miami Heat and will not sign an extension with them or any other team ahead of his opt-out clause in 2025."

Butler's earning potential next offseason will be fascinating. If he appears to be the same guy who carried Miami to Finals appearances in 2020 and 2023, he'll have the interest of every cap-room-toting contender in the league. If he continues to miss a quarter or more of the Heat's regular season games and shows further signs of athletic decline, well...maybe picking up that $52.4 million option for 2025-26 and staying off the free-agent market entirely will start to look a little more sensible.

Then again, if Butler puts up his fifth straight year averaging at least 20.0 points, 5.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds while playing rugged defense across, say, 50 games, that may still be enough to command major interest in 2025 free agency.

His habitual postseason superheroics are still fresh enough in everyone's mind to make a multiyear investment worthwhile.

-Hughes

Lauri Markkanen advances our trend of "Top free agents in 2025 who could be ripped off the market roughly one year before they ever hit it."

As of this writing, he's heading into the final season of his deal, valued at just over $18 million. The expectation for months has been that the Utah Jazz would renegotiate and extend his contract, giving him an immediate pay bump in 2024-25 while getting him under lock and key for the longer term.

Apparently, though, it may be time to adjust our priors.

Utah is reportedly listening to trade offers for the 27-year-old All-Star, a clear departure from everything we've heard over the past two seasons. To be sure, nothing out there currently intimates a deal is close. And the Jazz still have the cap space remaining to complete a renegotiate-and-extend that nudges Markkanen's 2024-25 salary all the way up to his max ($42.2 million).

Still, the longer we go without news of a contract getting done, the more you have to wonder: What's going on here?

The very existence of this question is a boon for trade suitors. It does even more for next summer's crop of free agents. Markkanen may not be a caps-lock star, but he soaks up defensive reps against both forward spots and blends offensive volume and efficiency in a manner that puts him inside the record books.

Last year was the second season in which he averaged north of 23 points per game while knocking down more than 55 percent of his twos and 39 percent of his threes. Across league history, just five other players have spit out more than one of these campaigns: Kevin Durant (five), Stephen Curry (four), Kawhi Leonard (three), Karl-Anthony Towns (3) and LeBron James (two).

—Favale

Jalen Brunson is set to enter free agency at pretty much the perfect time. This summer might have been better, if only because it's immediately following his top-five finish on the MVP ballot and Second Team All-NBA selection. But no matter what happens next season, suitors won't soon forget the 2023-24 campaign that took him from unlikely star to flat-out megastar.

Michael Jordan is the only player other than Brunson to have a season in which he posted usage and assist rates north of 30 with a turnover percentage below 10. Brunson also improved the New York Knicks' offensive rating when on the floor by nearly 15 points per 100 possessions—the second-largest swing in the league, behind only Nikola Jokić.

That is real, actual sicko stuff.

Some front offices will still write him off for his size (6'2" on a good day) and age entering the 2025-26 season (29). But there should be at least a couple of teams ready to offer him a four-year max worth a projected $199.4 million. And the Knicks, for their part, should be prepared to pony up their own four-year, $207.8 million max overture, if not warm up to the idea of going out five years and, potentially, over $269 million.

Depending on who you talk to, none of this may matter. Some reporting back in May suggested Brunson would sign a four-year extension this summer that maxes out at $156.5 million.

This would be, in no uncertain terms, a wild development. It doesn't just remove Brunson from the free-agency ranks. It has him leaving tens of millions of dollars in guaranteed money on the table.

Is that a concession he's willing to make after New York acquired yet another one of his Villanova bros in Mikal Bridges? The rest of the league will have to wait and see.

—Favale

LeBron James baked a 2025-26 player option into his new two-year deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, effectively confirming that he'll be handling his future on a rolling basis. That, in turn, basically guarantees he'll become a free agent (again).

Whether he's a potential flight risk remains debatable. The Lakers just signed Bronny James, his son, to a four-year contract (team option on the final season). That's at least one reason for him to stay put—and a pretty massive one at that.

Still, if he's going to keep playing, LeBron's re-entry into free agency is a formality. His 2025-26 player option is worth just under $54 million. Not only does he stand to make a hair more by hitting the "open" market ($54.1 million), but doing so allows him to sign another multiyear deal that guarantees him additional money over the long haul.

Could he take a pay cut? Sure. I guess. (Probably not.) But it still entails him reaching free agency.

Perhaps you're wondering whether LeBron belongs at No. 1 when he'll be approaching his age-41 season. The answer, as of now, is an unequivocal yes. He continues to defy everything and anything we know about age. If he plays anywhere near last season's level in 2024-25—25.7 points, 8.3 assists, 59.2 percent on twos, 41.0 percent on threes—he will be the best player available.

—Favale

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

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