What does EV mean in betting?
Simply put, +ev betting is about putting on bets that have a better chance of winning than is suggested by the implied probability of the bookmakers odds. If that sounds like a mouthful, don’t worry, it’s really simple.
Basically, expected value betting is a way of measuring the gap of probability between what a bettor expects to happen and what the sportsbook thinks will happen. Or, to put it another way, it’s looking for markets where you think the bookmakers have underestimated the odds. By doing this, you can hopefully enjoy more profitable betting picks.
A simple way of understanding how EV measures this probability gap is how much a bettor could expect to win or lose were a bet placed on the same odds and repeated many times. Say, for instance, you got $6 on a $5 bet on a coin flip. If this were repeated hundreds of times, you could likely expect a consistent dollar profit because of the 50% probability. Apply this logic to sports betting, and you get more profitable bets.
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How to use +EV bets
The problem with typical sports betting is that knowledge is not enough. You may, for instance, think you have a good idea of who will win a game – but that doesn’t also take into account the quality of the odds. So, you may be right, but still get a bad deal because the bookmaker also has them as heavy favorites.
If the bookmaker keeps offering less than competitive odds on your wagers, it’s hard for anyone to consistently see more returns than losses because sports results are tough to predict. Value betting is, therefore, more powerful than sports knowledge alone, because it’s about playing those odds to your advantage.
So, how do you use +EV betting picks?
Understanding odds and implied probability
To wrap your head around the practicalities of EV sports betting to craft a profitable betting strategy, you must first know how odds and implied probability works.
American odds have positive and negative figures. Positive means that the market is an underdog, and negative odds mean they’re a favorite. The higher the number, the more they’re considered an underdog or favorite. For instance, a -200 pick would be considered more likely to win than a -300 pick, although both would be underdogs.
These are just basic principles. You can actually convert all odds into an exact implied probability, with many betting calculators out there to help you with this. For instance, +100 would be 50%. So, you could say one side of a coin flip has +100 odds. Always remember those odds mean something. Take +200 odds – that has 33.3% implied probability, meaning the bookmaker thinks that the market has a third of a chance of making a return.
This is vital because whether or not you agree with the bookmaker’s expectations is key to EV betting, and implied probability is how you can measure those projections.
Using EV for positive betting picks
So, if EV is a measurement of what a bettor can expect to win or lose when a bet is placed multiple times on the same odds, positive EV bets means you should expect a profit. This works using a simple formula.
It’s your probability of winning x the amount won per bet - the probability of losing x the amount lost per bet.
If this comes out positively, then this is what we call positive EV betting and means your wager should have a better chance of being profitable. You can do value betting manually using the formula above or by using a betting calculator tool. These can vary but typically work like this:
- Add your wager amount.
- Enter the odds provided by the bookmaker.
- Add the ‘probability’. This is how much you think whatever is suggested by the market will actually happen.
Let’s say, for instance, your wagering amount is $10. The bookmaker has given this market odds of +250, which translates to 28.6% implied probability. You think they actually have a 50% chance of winning. This would provide you with an expected value of $5 – which would, in theory, be a great opportunity for EV betting.
Do keep in mind though, that while EV sports betting is a really useful tool, the sportsbooks are very good at their job, and losing is always a possibility. This is about giving you the best chance of winning bets, not guaranteeing it.
Conclusion: EV betting is a whole new way of approaching betting
We think of value betting as the last piece of the puzzle towards making smarter – and hopefully more successful – bets. In essence, it’s a strategy that takes the bookmakers on at their own game. In fact, not only can the additional consideration of the gap of probability between yours and the bookmaker's expectations provide better value wagers, but it can also give you a whole new way of thinking about your favorite sports.
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EV betting FAQ
❓What is EV betting?
First and foremost, the key question our EV betting guide seeks to answer is what that term actually means. We’ll be answering that before moving onto greater details and practicalities. So, don’t worry if you’ve never even heard of this term before. We’ll cover everything you need to know in our guide, including the core concepts behind EV betting.
✅How does implied probability relate to EV betting?
In order to understand and make the most use of EV betting, you first need to wrap your head around all the things that make it work. That’s why our EV betting guide will be showcasing not just the basics, but also the key concepts surrounding it. This includes the relation of EV betting to implied probability and the role that can play in understanding this strategy.
💵How does EV betting work?
Our EV betting page isn’t just a conceptual guide, where we explain in theory how things work and leave you to figure out the rest for yourself. It’s a practical guide, meaning we’ll also be providing examples of value betting and information on how you can use it for your wagers. We want everyone to walk away from this page with another tool in their betting belt.
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